>>13351024>>13351150>>13352052>>13352095At 400M subscribers across the world, Starlink generates SpaceX $200Bn/annual revenue after extracting 40Bn/yr for maintaining Earth, Moon, and MarsLink networks.
$3.5Bn = 35 flights
$36Bn = ~350 flights
$200Bn = 1,944 flights
If we assume for the rest of time that SpaceX will launch only 50 people per ship. At a launch window every 2 years, 2050 onwards to the end of the century of 2100, that provides you with 25 launch windows. That means a total of: 48,600 rockets TO MARS. If we assume that SpaceX and MarsX by 2050 have established sufficient presence and are conducting enough ISRU operations for fuel, food, energy, oxygen, water, and material goods/services that they can tweak the launch ratio from 75/25 to 50/50 for crew/cargo, then at 48.6k ships that means you get 24.3k for crew and 24.3k for cargo.
All this time I haven't tackled the payload upmass number, and I'm not going to bother to for the previous posts, but imagine what a small sized city needs in goods and services, double that and extrapolate a mass. Now, for the 2050-2100 goal.
>24,300 ships @ 50 people + 100T = 1,215,000 people to Mars + (existing population of ~30k (initial colony)) | Mars upmass = 2,430,000T for Starship>24,300 ships @ 150T to = 3,645,000T for Cargoship>Combined: 6,075,000T of cargo to Mars by end of 2150 (realistic estimatation)So the full potential of Starlink (applied to Earth for 400M people, then Moon and Mars and its own revenue facilitating local and intrastellar development in Space and beyond), by 2100 allows for: 1.245M people on Mars. If we assume say 10% population loss due to elements, accidents, potential disasters; that's still: 1.12M people on Mars w/ 6 MegaTons of cargo delivered to Mars between 2050 to 2100, and potentially another ~0.5MmT between 2030 to 2050.
You need 100k people to combat inbreeding, ensure genetic diversity, and guarantee survival of the species. 1.12M is 10x that. Earth can be lost.
