>>13350486It might be, we'll see.
>>13350499>Starship is projected to cost $10 million per launchThat's way too low, I can believe 30 million but 10 million is just ridiculously cheap.
>It wouldn't matter if the cargo was 100 kilos or 100 tons, it would cost $10 million.That's not how it works, smaller starship is cheaper, in footprint, manhours, raw materials, machines, logistic, etc. , it's not linear but with tenth of payload it wouldn't surprise me if it was half the price.
>You're correct in that for the first few years of existence the market for 100 tons of LEO payload capacity will be non-existent. But given time, people will start to find uses for it.So you think we'll see 100 tonnes satellites a few years after starship goes online?
I find it hard to believe but your argument makes sense, maybe Starship really is the future and small Starship would be it's own market for smaller payloads.
>>13350503>>13350510Smallsat market is pretty big and it'll only increase but I'm not talking smallsat, I'm talking SpaceX 100 tonnes Starship vs something like 10 tonnes Starship.
Point is: how many people today use Falcon heavy?
Very few, most of launches is Falcon 9, according to bigger = better logic Falcon heavy should have put Falcon 9 out of the market but it didn't, opposite Falcon 9 put Falcon heavy out of the market for anything but the heaviest payloads.
No one today needs 100 tonne Starship, what people today need is ~10-20 tonnes Starship, it might change in future but that's how it's now.
If Spacex did smaller Starship their profit would be greater.
>>13350524If Elon decides to pull all his money to it Mars colony will happen, he's just that rich, I simply find it hard to believe he would do that.
