>>13966030>If you touched a crocodile and it did not bite,you, how likely is it to be male? How likely is it to be female?Invalid question. It's either 1 or 0. Probability serves to estimate future events, not past events. But let's talk about what we can calculate.
If 100 volunteers touch 100 male crocodiles, we can estimate that 20 will still have their hands after the experiment.
If 100 volunteers do the same to female crocodiles, we can estimate that 50 of them will have their hands after the experiment.
In total, 70 people still have their hands. 2/7 of them touched a male crocodile, 5/7 of them touched a female crocodile.
Meaning that if you were to randomly pick one of the full-bodied volunteers, you would have 29% of chance of picking someone who touched a male crocodile and 71% of chance of picking someone who touched a female crocodile.
Notice that I said that if you were to pick someone randomly, YOUR CHANCE of picking someone who touched a crocodile of sex X is Y. I didn't say "given that you have picked a random two-handed volunteer, there's 71% of chance of them having touched a female crocodile". No, that would be wrong. Given that you randomly chose one of the lucky volunteers, the chance that they touched one of the female crocs is either 0 or 1, because it has already happened. The probability is in your random pick, which hasn't happened yet, not in whether or not someone touched a female crocodile.
