>>13530782Effective June, SpaceX launched the full shell 0 completion Starlinks to LEO. They'll finish raising orbits by end of this month, latest end of September. So by October first or mid, they'll be able to online the network officially. 1700 some satelites. SpaceX will become a rocket powered ISP (kek). Also effectively the largest satellite operator in history. They're reported to be at around 80k subscribers today, and their goal is to get to 1M by end of next year. I believe they're waiting on the Starlink factory in Texas to open so that they work on dropping the costs on dishes and terminals further through mass production and assembly lines.
In any case, let's say they open in october 2021.
So:
$100/mo * 80k subs = $8M
Oct, Nov, Dec = $24M. Starlink is still in the red. But its noted that while they're at 80k subs, they have a backorder of around 200-250k in starlink terminal requests. This number continues to grow. Let's assume Starlink factory comes online and by Dec 2021, they're at 250k subs.
So for 2022, adding 83,333 subs each month, the revenue stream out to 1M subs is:
$8M/october --> $16M/november --> $25M/december = $49M = 196 cost recovered of Starlinks
(in kilo increments)
Jan (250 + 83): 333k * 100 = $33.3M
Feb (333 + 83): 416k * 100 = $41.6M
Mar (416 + 83): 499k * 100 = $49.9M
May (499 + 83): 582k * 100 = $58.2M
Jun (582 + 83): 665k * 100 = $66.5M
Jul (665 + 83): 748k * 100 = $74.8M
Aug (748 + 83): 813k * 100 = $81.3M
Sept (813 + 83): 914k * 100 = $91.4M
Oct (914 + 83): 997 * 100 = $99.7M
Nov (997 + 83): 1080 * 100 = $108.0M
Dec (1,080 + 83): 1163 * 100 = $116.3M
Total 2022 Projected Revenue (+2021 Revenue): $870M
1700 sats + 29 F9 Flights @ ~30M flight cost = (250k * 1700) + (29 * 30M) = $870M flight cost + $425M shell cost = $1.295Bn total cost for Starlink effective August 2021.
By 2022 end, Starlink revenue = 1700 sat current shell @ 1M subs via F9 model
SS = 240 sats per @ 1/3rd cost. S curve revenue stream 2022+
