Envelope thread #2.
The last thread >>13316297 is about to reach its bump limit.
It seems like we've settled on the conclusion that there is no reason to switch, given that the $10 doesn't actually tell us anything new.
An interesting counterintuitive conclusion: if you're given a choice to take $10 or flip a coin to get either $5 or $20, it's just as rational to flip the coin, as is to stick with $10, even though the expected value of flipping the coin is higher. This just goes to show how different one-time events are from the situation where you have repeated trials.
The last thread >>13316297 is about to reach its bump limit.
It seems like we've settled on the conclusion that there is no reason to switch, given that the $10 doesn't actually tell us anything new.
An interesting counterintuitive conclusion: if you're given a choice to take $10 or flip a coin to get either $5 or $20, it's just as rational to flip the coin, as is to stick with $10, even though the expected value of flipping the coin is higher. This just goes to show how different one-time events are from the situation where you have repeated trials.
