No.13308835
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I'm trans and 5'10", and I wanted someone to help check my math- how clockable does my height make me?
The thing I want to figure out is "the probability a woman is trans given she is 5'10" or taller". So A = the probability a given woman is trans, B = the probability a given woman is 5'10" or taller.
Assuming that trans women follow the same height distribution as other AMAB people (which might be changing with more people having the chance for early transition), as per this calculator: https://dqydj.com/height-percentile-calculator-for-men-and-women/ the probability that a woman will be 5'10" or higher given that she's trans is 0.4 given that 5'10" is 60th percentile for male height distribution in the US. So P(B | A) = 0.4
The most common estimate I've heard for how many people are trans is about 1 in 300. So P(A) = 0.00333...
For women in general (cis women being a sufficiently overwhelming majority thereof that trans women won't affect the average substantially), 5'10" is 99th percentile, so P(B) = 0.01
(0.4*0.00333...)/0.01 = 0.1333... or 13.33%. which is 40 times the base rate. Unless there's something wrong with my math it seems like I'm screwed, because a probability 40 times higher than base rate is enough to promote a hypothesis to prominence. What's your view? Should I have posted this on /lgbt/ instead?
The thing I want to figure out is "the probability a woman is trans given she is 5'10" or taller". So A = the probability a given woman is trans, B = the probability a given woman is 5'10" or taller.
Assuming that trans women follow the same height distribution as other AMAB people (which might be changing with more people having the chance for early transition), as per this calculator: https://dqydj.com/height-percentile-calculator-for-men-and-women/ the probability that a woman will be 5'10" or higher given that she's trans is 0.4 given that 5'10" is 60th percentile for male height distribution in the US. So P(B | A) = 0.4
The most common estimate I've heard for how many people are trans is about 1 in 300. So P(A) = 0.00333...
For women in general (cis women being a sufficiently overwhelming majority thereof that trans women won't affect the average substantially), 5'10" is 99th percentile, so P(B) = 0.01
(0.4*0.00333...)/0.01 = 0.1333... or 13.33%. which is 40 times the base rate. Unless there's something wrong with my math it seems like I'm screwed, because a probability 40 times higher than base rate is enough to promote a hypothesis to prominence. What's your view? Should I have posted this on /lgbt/ instead?
