>>13307441People investing in pharmacutical companies don't wait for phasee 3 to finish before adjusting their investments. People with untreated diseases don't want for phase 3 to get a medicine they try to get in the trials if it's promising. People in pandemics don't want for phase 3 to finish because millions will literally die while you're making extra sure that the medicine doesn't have a null effect (which is exceedingly unlikely with an effect of 95% in early phase 3). The proposition "Trials have to finish completely to show any evidence of a medicine being effective" is both arbitrary and wrong.
Okay I'll control for natural immunity, lets say in the US. All people who had covid have 100% immunity is my assumption. There have been 30,759,242 cases since this time last year in the US where somebody hasn't subsequently died. US population as of april last year was 331,449,281. We can predict that 9% of the population got immunity between now and this time last year.
Jun10-20 2020 we saw 254,736 new cases compared to 213,996 the ten days before (R0=1.19). Jun 10-20 2021 we saw 109,888 new cases compared to 121,646 the ten days before (R=0.90). We would predict based on natural immunity, R0 should be 1.08.
Thus, even if we account for natural immunity, we still have an unexplained gap here. What has changed since then? Back at this time last year, states were re-opening and some were closed. Nowadays much more have opened
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html. So it's a struggle... hmm... what could have changed?
>>13307576First, you're claiming that when vaccination levels were low in the middle of flu season, COVID was rising. therefore vaccines BTFO? If we compare Feb2021 to Feb2020, we're talking about going from 8 cases to 70 vs 26363188 to 28624042. Mar is 88 to 163955 vs 28738382 to 30478758. This analysis has problems, but the point is an increase in COVID cases compared to what?
