>>13300420If you're in the US, get the National Weather Service forecast for your area. Understand what it means. Collect observation data. Compare.
I mention those things because 1) media sources alter the NWS forecasts. Many media outlets will round up the chance for rain to 20% even if it's really only 3% or 4%.
Understand what the percentages in the NWS forecasts mean. If it says there's 47% chance of rain, does that mean 47% chance of rain at some point during the day? Does it mean it's going to rain 47% of the day? Or does it mean there's a 47% chance of raining all day? These are all different things and different people believe different ones of them.
Lastly, if you do observations and compare to the official forecasts, you'll find that over extended periods of time, the difference between the forecasts and observation becomes very small.
