>>13244683No, that's not what I'm saying. Instead of paraphrasing me, start by telling me if you disagree with either of my assertions above.
I'm relying on intuition for the statement about the integral. To be more airtight, let's discretize and for a month T (i.e. "Oct 2020") let P(T) be the odds that you had coronavirus that month, and let Q(T) be the odds that you have had coronavirus in some month up to and including T. Then almost certainly, Q(T) = P(Jan '20) + P(Feb '20) + ... + P(T) (asymptotic equality, there's a little bit of wiggle-room for re-infections which are extremely rare). Surely you agree with all of that.
