So 10 horses ran in the Preakness today..
Three people had a friendly randomly-drawn side bet. They put 10 numbers in a hat, took turns picking a number until each had 3 selections and only 1 was left in the hat. This would mean going in, each had a 30% chance of winning and a 10% of a draw.. The results were:
Person A drew horses 1, 2, 3
Person B drew horses 4, 7, 10
Person C drew horses 5, 8, 9
The horse remaining was 6. Horse 6 had live odds at 11-1 of winning. Horse 6 did indeed win, and the friendly side-bet was a draw..
Below were the odds of each horse at post-time.
Person A: 1 (13-1); 2 (13-1) 3 (2-1)
Person B: 4 (8-1); 7 (22-1); 10 (7-2)
Person C: 5 (3-1); 8 (12-1); 9 (13-1)
And again, 6 was unselected, won, and was 11-1 at post. My question is: what was the weighted-odds of each person's selection to win, and what was the odds of a draw before the race started?
Three people had a friendly randomly-drawn side bet. They put 10 numbers in a hat, took turns picking a number until each had 3 selections and only 1 was left in the hat. This would mean going in, each had a 30% chance of winning and a 10% of a draw.. The results were:
Person A drew horses 1, 2, 3
Person B drew horses 4, 7, 10
Person C drew horses 5, 8, 9
The horse remaining was 6. Horse 6 had live odds at 11-1 of winning. Horse 6 did indeed win, and the friendly side-bet was a draw..
Below were the odds of each horse at post-time.
Person A: 1 (13-1); 2 (13-1) 3 (2-1)
Person B: 4 (8-1); 7 (22-1); 10 (7-2)
Person C: 5 (3-1); 8 (12-1); 9 (13-1)
And again, 6 was unselected, won, and was 11-1 at post. My question is: what was the weighted-odds of each person's selection to win, and what was the odds of a draw before the race started?
