>>13127572The Monty Hall problem is absurd.
There are 3 doors. I pick door 1 of 3. 1/3 chance of being correct.
Monty opens door 2 of 3 and reveals a goat. He then gives me the option to switch to door 3 of 3. So now I have a 50/50 shot at picking the right door, right? Door 1 or door 3?
Wrong. The chance of my being correct has not changed. Why?
Monty has only revealed that one of the options which I did not pick is wrong. That doesn't mean that the option I initially picked is also wrong. It means only that one of the options I did not pick is wrong.
Nothing has changed behind the doors. It is only the case that I now believe that door 2 was wrong. But I already believed door 2 was wrong, otherwise I would've picked door 2. Nothing has changed.
You can play with numbers all you want and insist that I should switch doors, but the only thing that has changed is that an option I thought was wrong is now an option I know was wrong.
