/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13106920

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Monty Hall Problem Real Solution

Anonymous Mon 10 May 00:57:34 2021 No.13106920 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13106948 >>13106987 >>13106999 >>13107025 >>13107132 >>13107138 >>13107313 >>13107345 >>13107371 >>13107678 >>13107765 >>13107769 >>13107772 >>13107820 >>13107823 >>13107837

Is he right? Has "the global math community" been wrong this whole time?

https://twitter.com/VickerySec/status/1391551430712913923

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 00:58:47 No.13106926 Report

Quoted By:

>twitter thread
gay

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:01:40 No.13106941 Report

Quoted By:

Will Twitter fact check him

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:04:08 No.13106948 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
irrelevant, m*th is cancelled for being racist

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:13:52 No.13106987 Report

Quoted By: >>13106994 >>13107780

>>13106920
wait I think he's right, I never realized this before...

Why is it that every time monty hall is done, they group two of the potential outcomes as 1 in the same? Thats not how you calculate probability lulz

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO hahahahah what.jpg, 61KiB, 2133x292

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:16:58 No.13106994 Report

Quoted By: >>13107237

>>13106987
ahaha wow I should have scrolled down, their logic diagram is literally incomplete! There is a fourth scenario where the individual goats are swapped. Its not the same goat behind both doors, ergo its another arrangement possibility.

If you label them as goat 1 and goat 2, it all makes sense

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:18:07 No.13106999 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
>Is he right?
Nope, and he's likely just trying to get a response. Ignore.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:21:33 No.13107007 Report

Quoted By: >>13107015

>certified by twitter with the jew checkmark
>wrong about a basic thing
yep that seems about right. If you have any doubts just write a python script real quick to test it yourself like I did, and pretend to be surprised when switching gives better odds no matter how many times it is run.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:22:52 No.13107015 Report

Quoted By: >>13107039 >>13107048

>>13107007
Or just play it online if you don't know how to code.

https://www.mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:25:08 No.13107025 Report

Quoted By: >>13107039 >>13107048 >>13107657 >>13107815 >>13107888

>>13106920
Had anyone here ever run a simple simulation of the situation and run it for sufficient iterations?

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO Arsenio Hall Problem.png, 39KiB, 815x439

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:27:59 No.13107039 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107015
>>13107025

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:29:05 No.13107048 Report

Quoted By: >>13107057 >>13107068 >>13107780

>>13107025
>>13107015
what if you simulate it like this?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:30:58 No.13107057 Report

Quoted By: >>13107130

>>13107048
Okay, yeah, then take a weighted average based on the probability of choosing a goat first or the car first and you'll get the right answer. You haven't finished the problem

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:32:24 No.13107068 Report

Quoted By: >>13107130

>>13107048
But your chances of picking a goat for the first door are 2/3, and 1/3 for picking the car. You need to list a third scenario that's another goat.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:36:57 No.13107097 Report

Quoted By: >>13107371

>Director of Cyber Risk Research at UpGuard
Fucking CS RETARDS

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:43:09 No.13107130 Report

Quoted By: >>13107280 >>13107780

>>13107068
>>13107057
okay, what about like this?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:44:04 No.13107132 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
> implying the goal isn't to win the GOAT

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 01:45:06 No.13107138 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
2 minutes in python proves it's 33% without any maths

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:06:04 No.13107237 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106994
>If you label them as goat 1 and goat 2, it all makes sense
It makes no difference whatsoever, the answer is still 2/3. Swapping the goats has no effect.

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO goat meta final solution.png, 757KiB, 2090x3112

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:14:54 No.13107280 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107130
dont worry boys I have self educated myself and discovered the error of my ways

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:17:23 No.13107290 Report

Quoted By: >>13107303

he’s not backing down lol

I think this guy might be schizo

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:21:25 No.13107303 Report

Quoted By: >>13107371

>>13107290
>refusing to evaluate the problem as its stated
>said by the guy who, in his own twatter thread, evaluated the problem as "you're only given two doors; one goat, one car."
Total schizo, for sure.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:24:47 No.13107313 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:32:16 No.13107345 Report

Quoted By: >>13107371

>>13106920
>1. There are two doors. One has a car behind it. The other has a goat behind it.
>2. Choose a door.
The fuck?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:44:49 No.13107371 Report

Quoted By: >>13107374

>>13106920
>>13107097
>>13107303
>>13107345
the twitter checkmark is really the retard certification

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 02:46:25 No.13107374 Report

Quoted By: >>13107673

>>13107371
weak minded lemming fool detected

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 04:43:22 No.13107657 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107025
Just code it in python?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 04:47:05 No.13107673 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107374
t. twit

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO monty.png, 50KiB, 374x382

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 04:49:30 No.13107678 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 04:57:07 No.13107701 Report

Quoted By: >>13108336

Based schitzo

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:24:34 No.13107765 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
i have 3 doors and one has a billion dollars behind it. pick a door. now that you've picked a door, time for the real question. do you think your door has the prize behind it or do you think that one of the other two doors has the prize behind it? get this question right and you win the prize.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:27:20 No.13107769 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
/ourguy/

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:27:54 No.13107772 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
>False conclusions at scale
Protip for the pseuds here: when you say "at scale", you expose how idiotic you are. It's a meaningless phrase that pseuds use to communicate with each other.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:32:37 No.13107780 Report

Quoted By: >>13107795 >>13107798

>>13106987
>>13107048
>>13107130
For fucks sake I'm upset that nobody is properly addressing this. It's probably because they don't understand. Here's where your image is wrong: you need to include the possibility the red goat is originally chosen. So you should have six options in total. So the odds are if you switch, 4 to win 2 to lose. 2/3.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:40:12 No.13107795 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107780
>It's probably because they don't understand.
It was already addressed, but feel free to pat yourself on the back.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:41:45 No.13107798 Report

Quoted By: >>13107911

>>13107780
You aren't supposed to "address" a troll.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:48:59 No.13107815 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107025
i did convince my father with a couple of cards and some tries once

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:50:54 No.13107820 Report

Quoted By:

>>13106920
Actual schizo, WTF

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO doorsx-edout.png, 607KiB, 1200x705

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 05:53:51 No.13107823 Report

Quoted By: >>13108147

>>13106920
> No, he is retarded.

This is better example.
Chooses 1 door between 100.
98 doors are revealed.

The probability is not 1/2, because you are simply keeping your stupid random door that you chose when the probability was 1/100, this door is simply not the correct one.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:00:52 No.13107837 Report

Quoted By: >>13107855

>>13106920
What if I want a goat? What's my play?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:01:33 No.13107839 Report

Quoted By: >>13108418

>Some literally who with a checkmark posts dumb shit on twatter
>This apparently warrants a thread over it
Who the fuck cares about some tweet with 10 likes?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:08:29 No.13107855 Report

Quoted By: >>13107860

>>13107837
don't switch
duh

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:10:11 No.13107860 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107855
I've concocted a better plan, I'm going to bring a gun and hold the whole gameshow hostage until they give me both the goats.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:25:29 No.13107888 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107025
yes dozens if not hundreds of people have done it (spoiler: it's 2/3)

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 06:39:26 No.13107911 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107798
lol sorry I can't solve problems first try bro, but really my last post was a probability complete proof for switch , im not a troll, just gay

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 07:58:42 No.13108147 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107823
Honestly don't get why it's so rarely explained this way. this seems, at least to me, to make the correct answer way more intuitive.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 08:42:30 No.13108336 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107701
lol why are schizos so into logic problems

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 08:46:51 No.13108354 Report

Quoted By:

Does every retard on twitter have a checkmark now or what?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 10 May 2021 09:06:40 No.13108418 Report

Quoted By:

>>13107839
Confident self-owns are hilarious.

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