>>13068543>That's 3 chances to proveeven if it were true, 3 is humongously low given how usually the first 10-20 of anyhting at this level of expense and technology are 100% always demonstrators that slowly get scaled up.
You dont go from the drawing board to making a god damn F-15 fighter, you start with the wrights biplane and work your way up, you might start with a biplane if youre lucky, but you sure as hell aint gonna start with a jumbo jet,a nd youre lucky if theres only 10 iterations between your initial test and your last.
Also, remember, the whole philosophy and structure of spacex is structured around being able to rapid test, they have 0 idea on how to do something like this on few shots and if they attempt it it will backfire horribly.
But in any case, its actually just 1 period, because before a manned mission is aproved the starship has to prove it can land back, so it cant be the first or second one (first one launches, second one proves it can return, then third one launcehs the manned mission)
which in any case is mind bogglinly insane, because either the mission is backed by the goverment , in which case, yeah, knowing how the goverment work you think theyll put together a mars mission in a couple of years?
or if its solely backed by spacex? then how the fuck, even assuming they could go around the mountain of red tape goverment would put htem trough, which they could not, even so, your talking about trillions of dollars invested (only way it can go right the first time with guaranteed no problems) for something ultra risky that will get you 0 cash, for a bit of publicity versus the chances of a lot of HORRIBLE publicty (dead astronauts on live tv) and it would literally be the ONLY UNPROFITABLE THING SPACEX DOES when it has a lot of insanely profitable things to do, and no competition therfore reasont o hurry in any of those fronts, particularly ont he martian front
