/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12979950

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/daily retard probability thread/

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 18:59:40 2021 No.12979950 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12979971 >>12980005 >>12980163 >>12980213

I flip a coin. If it's head, I interview random 10 people. If it's tail, I interview random 20 people. You know that. You are interviewed with the question - "what's the probability that it was head". What's your answer.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:03:19 No.12979971 Report

Quoted By:

>>12979950
50%
it's either head or it's tail

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:09:03 No.12980005 Report

Quoted By:

>>12979950
33%

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:14:32 No.12980043 Report

Quoted By: >>12980046

if we assume there are 7 billion people
the probability that i get interviewed given that you flipped a head is 1.43e-9
the probability that i get interviewed given that you flipped a tails is 2.86e-9

dunno where to go from there desu

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:15:08 No.12980046 Report

Quoted By: >>12980050

>>12980043
you sound like an engineer

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:15:43 No.12980050 Report

Quoted By: >>12980059

>>12980046
i'm a pornstar desu

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:17:18 No.12980059 Report

Quoted By:

>>12980050
Same thing

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:20:00 No.12980073 Report

Quoted By:

50%

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:37:36 No.12980163 Report

Quoted By:

>>12979950
op fucking answer already you piece of shit

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 19:48:36 No.12980213 Report

Quoted By:

>>12979950
It was 50-50, independent of who will be interviewed.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 15 Apr 2021 20:02:03 No.12980272 Report

Quoted By:

The answer is 1/3, straightforward application of Bayes

P(H | I) = P(I | H)*P(H)/P(I)
P(H) = 0.5 with a fair coin
Let n>=20 be the size of the population from which you can interview. Then,
P(I | H) = 10/n
P(I) = 0.5*(10/n) + 0.5*(20/n) = 15/n
Putting it all together,
P(H | I) = (10/n)*0.5/(15/n) = 5/15 = 1/3

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