The likelihood of a pandemic prior to 2020

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Since they won't stop hammering our heads about how unlikely it is to develop a brain thrombosis after getting any of their adenovirus vaccines, I can't help but wondering, statistically what were the probabilities of a global pandemic shutting down most world's economies the following year?
We all know anybody at the time alerting everybody about a virus killing 2,974,830 worldwide (latest data) would have been deemed a scaremonger, yet here we are.
So okay, I get realistically this was an obvious consequence of globalization and environmental destruction sooner or later, but still I'm sure many scientists would have said this was at the very least a too hypothetical possibility, better not being alarmists.