Seems like about 2.5 percent of cases need a ventilator, so a sizable fraction of those would die. If it was really a total do-nothing kind of situation, there are about 60,000 ventilators in the US. If I just make up some numbers and assume it would take 6 months to burn through the 300 million US citizens, and each ventilator is in use for, say, a week per patient, that’s effectively 60,000*4*6 = 1,440,000 cases where a ventilator is available. 2.5 percent of cases need a ventilator, so that’s 300,000,000*0.025 ~ 7 million ventilators needed. I’ll assume “need a ventilator” means “would die without one”, so that’s ~5.6 million deaths just do to lacking ventilators, in addition to whatever deaths happen even when ventilators are available. So that’s 5.6/300 ~ 2ish percent excess of the US population dying, since without mask measures other causes of death would have been unchanged. Plus, as others said, the economy would still tank, since that’s a lot of unfilled jobs and many people would be afraid to work anyway. Obviously these are all very very rough estimates, so give or take, like, 50 percent, but that’s still 1ish percent of the population JUST do to missing ventilators. There are probably many more cases where all hospital beds are full so you can’t get any treatment at all, which would increase the mortality in a separate way
