>>12938422Do you realize how many billions it takes to develop a spacecraft safe enough to carry humans? SNC may not even be able to do it and they already have cargo Dream Chaser. For the other companies it's not going to happen, over the next decade there will be limited tourism and commercial research flights to the ISS and new space stations, most will be on existing vehicles like Crew Dragon. The same economics that apply to satellites apply to humans, you need to have a cheap launch vehicle, as well as a cheap reusable spacecraft, or else few people can afford a seat. The only rocket cheap enough to increase the addressable market is Starship.
95%+ of the hundred some smallsat launcher companies will go out of business. Even if they manage to somehow get the funding for a larger rocket they will still probably die, with maybe the exception of Rocket Lab, although being a Antares replacement is stupid and Cargo Dragon carries three times the payload of Cygnus. Smallsat launchers are in a bubble that is going to pop soon, they won't be able to get much private or public funding and they're never going to make that much through their launches. Rocket Lab still isn't profitable and their revenue is tiny, like 30-50 million a year. It will be even worse with more competition.
