>>12849341Depends on the number of infected people. Take that times the average number of viruses in an infected person's body, times the average probability to mutate. I'd calculate the standard deviation too, to get a feeling for how accurate that estimate is.
Then there's the time component. How long until enough people are vaccinated? You can estimate the current growth with the r0-value, not sure how to accurately model the different vaccination rates everywhere.
