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Infectious Disease Modelling

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 17:37:46 2021 No.12797782 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12797788 >>12799043 >>12799929

So guys I'm trying to study how an epidemic spreads from a mathematical perspective.
What do you think are the best books/websites about infectious disease modelling?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 2021 17:39:53 No.12797788 Report

Quoted By:

>>12797782
Dunno, google and wikipedia?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 2021 17:44:33 No.12797808 Report

Quoted By: >>12799043 >>12799130 >>12799264

Disease modelling is a fucking backwater when compared to the rest of time series forecasting. Their """"models"""" are absolutely medieval-tier and yet modelers still act like they're really advanced techniques. Simple ODEs don't follow reality very well.

t. works professionally in time series forecasting

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 2021 22:08:11 No.12799043 Report

Quoted By: >>12799130

>>12797782 >>12797808
it's all a fucking meme except for actual random varuiables (virus spreading is NOT). it just has an s curve thats all we know the rest is BS. just compare it to previous viruses that are around the same

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 2021 22:22:29 No.12799130 Report

Quoted By:

Keeling & Rohani, Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals
Barabasi, Network Science
>>12797808
>>12799043
What about larger models like e.g. gleamviz? I don't think anyone is claiming these basic SIR ODE things are accurate detailed models of diseases in real populations. Though of course you should always take the very simplest model that explains the phenomenon you are interested in so no reason to discard them entirely.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 06 Mar 2021 22:45:48 No.12799264 Report

Quoted By:

>>12797808
redpilled

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Mar 2021 01:08:35 No.12799929 Report

Quoted By:

>>12797782
The models are all shit. None of them made accurate predictions about covid at all. Learn machine learning instead.

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