Is probability theory the master of all theories?

Happened: I made a small repair to my car in a service-shop. After repair, the dashboard instructed a fault in charge system. They said my charger would be bad and repairing it would cost many hundred €.

But, as I knew probability theory, I knew they just fucked something up. And I was right: at the repair-shop, they pushed one cable so it didnt transmit signal to the control unit. With my insisting attitude, it was pushed back and the fault-light turned off.


A person with no knowledge of probabilities would have had an unnecessary repair and that would have costed them much. But as I knew that conditional probability to a fault when a car is in repair is zero, I wasn't fooled.