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Comparison of COVID-19 spread North America vs Europe

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 11:03:40 2021 No.12677403 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12677440 >>12680435

Using a similar colour legend for all countries showing on the map and with per capita numbers and with most countries divided into sub-region is my attempt at showing the spread of COVID-19 in as a descriptive way as possible.

Updated now until June 25th so entire first wave is visible.

Cases:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9LsaGuv4fA

Deaths:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hTEHQvvWt0

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 11:24:31 No.12677440 Report

Quoted By: >>12677481 >>12677995

>>12677403
How do you account for different testing efficancy between nations and even internally within nations? NEJM has decided on using under-60s mortality per capita as the least misleading way to compare nations, what's your preference?

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 11:55:45 No.12677481 Report

Quoted By:

>>12677440
I prefer to avoid making too speculative adjustments, unless they are clearly needed. Sorry if answer was a bit fuzzy. Not sure what you mean by that under-60s mortality per capita? That sure would make Europe look very good though, but it's not like as if everyone above 60 where just months from inevitable death anyway, so what would the rationale be for such a metric? On the video descriptions on the YouTube channel I mention some of the methodology.

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 15:40:51 No.12677995 Report

Quoted By: >>12678013

>>12677440
Regarding the different testing propensities different countries are doing, I am not accounting for that, as I don't see ho I could do it without it just being me wildly guessing. I agree it would be interesting and some countries tested extensively like Iceland, South Korea and USA, while some tried to avoid testing at all cost, like Sweden. It's hard to find a way to scale the numbers based on that. I think it might be better to just mention it as a sidenote?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 15:44:13 No.12678007 Report

Quoted By:

I get how the east and west coast goes to shit right away, but wtf is happening in the mid-west?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 15:46:29 No.12678013 Report

Quoted By: >>12678078 >>12678175

>>12677995
>while some tried to avoid testing at all cost, like Sweden.
? They recommend you get tested just like everywhere else

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:06:54 No.12678078 Report

Quoted By: >>12678129 >>12678146

>>12678013
I personally live in Sweden and I can 100% verify that that is simply not true. Sweden at first was very reluctant to do any pre-meditated testing, let alone widespread testing. And even now they really seem to prefer that you don't get tested. Unless you have very clear symptoms, testing yourself is really expensive in Sweden. Also if you have had symptoms for more than 5 days in Sweden, they advice you to not get tested and that you just personally assume you have Covid-19 (so not counted as a case, although a likely case in reality). Also if you have been abroad and might have gotten the new mutated version, they advice you to not get tested for safety reason. You can read all about it at https://www.1177.se if you just translate it. It's surely a special approach.

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:23:28 No.12678129 Report

Quoted By:

>>12678078
Note that I am not saying the ratio between actual cases compared to confirmed cases in Sweden is unusually high nowadays compared to many other countries. Probably well above average though, but nothing unique.

However it's quite obvious Sweden insanely underestimated the number of actual cases they had March-May 2020. The authorities were still in almost complete denial mode and doubled down on their obviously incorrect claims that "no major national spread within Sweden is occurring" for far too long instead of adapting to the real world. And you were only barely advised to get tested if you had significant symptoms, but not if you had symptoms for too long, then you just should assume you had COVID-19. So go figure exactly what little timespan and span in terms of degree of symptoms you were supposed to have to qualifying for "should get tested". I am not making this up!

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:30:33 No.12678146 Report

Quoted By: >>12678200 >>12678215

>>12678078
>testing yourself is really expensive in Sweden
Is it different between places in sweden? because this link says that there are no costs related to testing https://www.1177.se/Blekinge/sjukdomar--besvar/lungor-och-luftvagar/inflammation-och-infektion-ilungor-och-luftror/om-covid-19--coronavirus/samlad-information-om-egenprovtagningen-i-blekinge/fragor-och-svar/
I'm Norwegian, and from a quick read-through it looks like a lot of the same recommendations that we have for when/if you should get testet

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:39:00 No.12678175 Report

Quoted By: >>12678198

>>12678013
So again, I do agree they NOW have tested pretty good in Sweden. But they started doing it very very late, especially for being one of the hardest hit countries in the world in late April and May. So despite of that as of June 1st the number of test performed per 1000 capita was as follows:

179 Iceland
109 Denmark
87 Spain
78 Portugal
75 Belgium
64 Italy
63 United Kingdom
58 Latvia
57 Australia
56 New Zealand
53 USA
50 Austria
47 Germany
46 Switzerland
45 Norway
44 Canada
41 Czechia
33 Finland
24 Sweden

Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20200601004832/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:46:36 No.12678198 Report

Quoted By: >>12679431

>>12678175
Thats interesting
How does it compare to number of cases per 1000 capita?

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:48:27 No.12678200 Report

Quoted By: >>12678212 >>12678254

>>12678146
Jag bor faktiskt just i Blekinge :) The region were the spread hit the latest in Sweden. I have had friends seeking to get tested, and let's just say that you don't get excessively encouraged to get tested when contacting the healthcare system. You can get tested for free under certain circumstances. What qualifies for getting tested for free may very well vary from län to län. I know friends paid as they just felt slightly ill and wanted to make sure they didn't have it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:53:38 No.12678212 Report

Quoted By:

>>12678200
>Jag bor faktiskt just i Blekinge :)
Oslo her, plz no bully
Fascinating, but i'd imagine they've tried to limit testing to not flood the capacity?
We have quite a bit of "check these boxes" for testing, but as long as there is capacity, you can get testet even without symptoms.

The first part of 2020 was complete chaos tho, but ive gotten tested 4 times in 6 months without any issue. And then there is the possibility of paying 500-1000 for a test at a private clinic

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 16:55:13 No.12678215 Report

Quoted By: >>12678235 >>12678254

>>12678146
I think you might be on to something that the general recommendations now is somewhat similar to Norway. I was mostly talking about the attitude about testing during the period March-October and I should have clarified that I suppose.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 17:01:08 No.12678235 Report

Quoted By:

>>12678215
yeah i have no idea how you guys ran things back early in 2020, but then again the Swedish approach was really different to ours

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 07 Feb 2021 17:05:55 No.12678254 Report

Quoted By: >>12678347

>>12678215
>>12678200
Speaking of, how has the antivax/schizo dealings been in Sweden during all of this? We here in Norway have the usual 5G/autism/"Bill Gates will eat my children"-crown doing its thing

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 17:34:01 No.12678347 Report

Quoted By:

>>12678254
To be honest, I don't know as I don't engage in the overall Swedish debate that much as I find it just leeches me of intellect, but my impression is that's a relatively small problem in Sweden with vaccination conspiracies compared to other countries. In Sweden it's rather a problem that too many have far to high trust in the authorities, even when in instances when it's obvious they are acting inappropriate, so it's not a good climate for a more widespread conspiracy climate...

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Sun 07 Feb 2021 22:56:25 No.12679431 Report

Quoted By:

>>12678198
Well it correlates, not surprisingly. But since it's difficult to decide why it correlates, it's hard to draw any conclusions. Testing more obviously makes you capable of discovering more cases, but with diminishing returns the more you test. So even drastic differences in countries' testing should not be assumed to mean there must be a significant amount of difference in "undiscovered cases" between those cases. The further into the pandemic we have gotten the less of a issue the difference in testing eagerness have become for assessing a probable number of total cases. If anything it's rather individual countries different general policies and definition of a case that could be of greater concern, like how Turkey suddenly realized they had measured a case much more stricter and correspondingly changed their numbers around middle of December. In that situation I have scaled the previously reported numbers with that factor to reflect that Turkey likely had a similar factor of under-reported cases pre-December as well as their strict definition was stable up until that.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2021 04:40:37 No.12680435 Report

Quoted By: >>12680758

>>12677403
add music

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Mon 08 Feb 2021 07:07:42 No.12680758 Report

Quoted By:

>>12680435
I personally tend to hate YouTube-videos with music though, but I suppose many people like it. What would even be suitable music? Pachelbel or Benny Hill? ;)

I am mostly concerned about making the data descriptive, not fancy.

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