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Worldwide timeline of COVID-19 spread and deaths showing 2000+ sub-national regions

WelloHorld Mon 01 Feb 16:42:14 2021 No.12652753 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12653309

After some suggestions I made the timeline faster so 1 second represent 3 or 4 days, rather than 1.

I also uploaded some on imgur at https://imgur.com/user/DataAndColours

But for really high resolution you should look on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POSJOpz8obY

Ask if you have questions regarding methodology or sources. Also if you like a certain part of the world for a smaller timeline I may be able to do that.

I am currently improving and extending the African continent on the timeline, arguably the hardest continent actually, since it's so hard to scrape the data as usually noone have done it before.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 19:59:09 No.12653309 Report

Quoted By: >>12653895

>>12652753
A major problem is that many countries flat out lie. Iran has 3x number of cases than reported, according to a leak to BBC. India also looks shaky. Turkey was caught and redid their stats. Some Mediterranean countries seemingly had the tourist ministries overruling the health ministries, hoping still for holiday tourism. Bangladesh and Pakistan have figures that seem implausible in view of literature on genetic susceptibility and common borders with India.

Try a different plot: a phase plot with infections along the X-axis and fatalities along the Y-axis, and then plot countries along these axes. You should see the characteristic exponential growth/decline and the (out)liars should also be easily seen.

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:09:55 No.12653895 Report

Quoted By: >>12653933 >>12653934

>>12653309
Some good points there and some of it is being addressed in the video descriptions on YouTube and there certainly are uncertainties, and it needs to be taken into consideration, but what countries and how much is up to the viewer in my opinion. Surprised you didn't mentioned Tanzania, the most obvious ones in my opinion. Just hasn't gotten as much attention by media. At least my opinion after seeking and processing COVID-data for probably over 1000 hours by now. Not sure it's such a thrid-world country phenomenon though at all. Sweden for instance categorically refused to do any testing whatsoever and adviced many elders to not even come to the hospital and many died at home with obvious symptoms of Covid-19 but they were never diagnosed alive nor post-mortem so not counted in the statistics neither as a case or a death. I make it up to the viewers to assess all of this. The data is still important and interesting and the western way of living certainly allowed it to spread at a crazy pace. Also just for the record, it wasn't really BBC who "leaked" Iran's number, they didn't even cite their sources nor fully published the data properly and NCRI have made rather well motivated alternative numbers for Iran more or less from day one, but western media somehow missed that, so I didn't really understand all the fuss they tried to create with that "leak". Btw Spain have done official estimates of their actual number of cases early on, and they are used in the confirmed cases timeline here. Just hope other countries like Italy, UK, Sweden, Belgium can do the same, but I am not holding my breath they ever will...

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:16:07 No.12653933 Report

Quoted By:

>>12653895
OK "categorically refused to do any testing whatsoever" was not well formulated and I clearly didn't mean that in a literal way. But a very bizarre attitude to the disease certainly existed/still exist among Swedish decision-makers.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:16:16 No.12653934 Report

Quoted By: >>12654032

>>12653895
My take is that Africa can be divided in two types of countries: poor countries with low life expectancy where people die of malaria etc before getting old enough to die from Covid; and richer countries where life expectancy is sufficient to be vulnerable to Covid. The latter is mainly Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa.
Also, in poor countries, can they really afford to check the cause of death of everyone?

As for Sweden, they have painted themselves into a corner, politically. The herd immunity approach has made it a no country for old folks.

My interest in this was in trying to track the spread. And it remains unclear how this reached France and Iran early on. Qom was really hammered. It took one year for China to permit experts in to examine this, I wonder if there are any traces left.

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:31:58 No.12654032 Report

Quoted By: >>12654062

>>12653934 But it is interesting to see the age distribution of the deaths in Africa. In many African countries many of the dead was in their 40s and 50s at a remarkably different level than in other continents. I still find it somewhat unclear wether age is a risk factor
in itself, and not just that it so obviously correlates with deteriorating health. I think it's easy to underestimate how much non-commuting and travelling lifestyles can retard the spread of the virus and that may probably often be a reason why less developed African countries saw almost no regional spreads beyond few clusters that was taken care of. Also, many Africans may have benefitted from their experiences from dealing with Ebola, so they could act effectively to stop the spread, instead of hoarding toilet paper? ;)

WelloHorld

WelloHorld Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:38:35 No.12654062 Report

Quoted By: >>12654187

>>12654032
I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't buy the idea that "Africa got so little Covid because they barely have any old people". I see that argument being made quite often, but I fail to see reality supporting it. It may be hard for some westerners to realize "we were much worse at dealing with this than Africa", so alternative reasons why so few died in Africa have to be made up to avoid coming to that realization...?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 22:59:43 No.12654187 Report

Quoted By:

>>12654062
>I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't buy the idea that "Africa got so little Covid because they barely have any old people". I see that argument being made quite often, but I fail to see reality supporting it.
I made that assumption based on the big 3 killers in Africa, some countries have a life expectancy less than 60 years. I never found age breakdown. Also I wonder, would the young people be those reinfected? There are suggestions that surviving one infection leaves you with scarred lungs that will kill you in the second infection, but again hard figures are hard to come by.

>It may be hard for some westerners to realize "we were much worse at dealing with this than Africa", so alternative reasons why so few died in Africa have to be made up to avoid coming to that realization...?
Yes, there is a lot of prestige involved, as the meltdown in EU showed. A lot of careers are at stake here, nothing can be more important than that, you know.

Another issue is the bioweapon potential. Even if this were not meant to be a bioweapon it sure shows how you could make one. It seems there is deselection for Denosovan genes relating to lungs, and selection for certain Neanderthal genes. That kills a lot in Europe, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, but far less so in the Far East. You can tell by the blue diagonal from Central Asia to South East Asia in your maps. This brings in military secrecy, especially in the UK where the government is really keen on secrecy. The selectivity for various ethnicities sure took a long time to be published in the UK, though the research article by Pääbo was a huge hint.

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