/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12652143

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 11:50:52 2021 No.12652143 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12652279 >>12652283 >>12652465 >>12652483 >>12652499 >>12652998 >>12653044

I’m not a statistics guy, but does anybody know the odds of legitimately winning the Idaho state lottery 6 times?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 11:59:36 No.12652155 Report

Quoted By: >>12652279

The cheque says 'Scratch Games' but the headline says lotto winner. So bullshit article either way,

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 13:23:01 No.12652279 Report

Quoted By: >>12652436 >>12652443

>>12652143
How many tickets has he bought over the years? What percentage were winners? What were the average winnings? My friend Tim posts about his "lottery winnings" all the time. Doesn't post about all of his losing tickets but I'm betting they cost a lot more than the couple hundred dollars he wins here and there.
>>12652155
$250,000 is also a give away that this isn't for the six ball lotto. That's a really good jackpot for a scratch game but a shitty win for a six ball game.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 13:24:23 No.12652283 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652143
I win maybe 1/10 times I play the lotto, I've definitely won more than 6 times in my life
Most were $2, but I still won more than 6 times

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:20:28 No.12652436 Report

Quoted By: >>12652463

>>12652279
Either way, CNN shouldn't use the term LOTTO WINNINGS if they count scratch tickets and/or minor, non-jackpot wins as well.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:24:36 No.12652443 Report

Quoted By: >>12652463

>>12652279
I'd be quite happy with a $250k jackpot. Anyway, the article said it's his first top prize, and "by far the largest."

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:37:01 No.12652463 Report

Quoted By: >>12652479 >>12653030 >>12653046

>>12652443
>>12652436
Yep, it's CNN being CNN. Articles like these where you understand the subject matter should give you pause when deciding whether or not to believe CNN stories on subjects where you're not knowledgeable.
The person who should get your attention is Stanford math phd Joan Ginther who appears to have figured out some flaw in the way lottery scratch tickets are distributed.
>First, she won $5.4 million, then a decade later, she won $2million, then two years later $3million and in the summer of 2010, she hit a $10million jackpot.
>Three of her wins, all in two-year intervals, were by scratch-off tickets bought at the same mini mart in the town of Bishop.
>The odds of this has been calculated at one in eighteen septillion and luck like this could only come once every quadrillion years.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:37:41 No.12652465 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652143
P1xp2xp3xp4xp5xp6
Find out the probs of winning each of those prizes and multiply them together

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:43:58 No.12652479 Report

Quoted By: >>12652490

>>12652463
Jesus Christ, what an unfortunate visage.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:44:50 No.12652483 Report

Quoted By: >>12652493

>>12652143
It is more probable that that lotto will be investigated for fraud based on those cases.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:47:09 No.12652490 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652479
All that money and she still looks like this. But at some point, guess it doesn't matter. What do beautiful people get that cannot be purchased?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:49:27 No.12652493 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652483
Don't be so sure.
>The Texas Lottery Commission told Mr Rich that Ms Ginther must have been 'born under a lucky star', and that they don’t suspect foul play.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 14:52:41 No.12652499 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652143
After the first win, the gambler has a lot of money to play the lotto with. If they choose to play a lot, it is still unlikely, but not impossible to have a winning streak.. especially if they figure out how to efficiently bet against themselves. In any case it is still a gamble, not a get rich quick scheme.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 15:25:30 No.12652559 Report

Quoted By:

Pic is for Illinois but Idaho likely has similar odds for their scratch off tickets.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 17:52:53 No.12652998 Report

Quoted By:

>>12652143
Statistics are not easily understood by humans so don't worry about it.
You aren't actually looking for the probability for someone to win the lottery six times, you are looking for the probability across all lotteries of single participant winning six times.
To think of it another way, he has just as much chance of winning a seventh time as he did the first time.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 18:00:23 No.12653021 Report

Quoted By: >>12653028

What an asshole. Stop winning and start losing. Your revenue is out of proportion in streaks.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 18:02:50 No.12653028 Report

Quoted By:

>>12653021
on second thought can I buy multiple tickets and program a random seed with a little bit of variation in theory to increase my chances of winning?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 18:02:57 No.12653030 Report

Quoted By: >>12653046

>>12652463
wait so what's going on then? why would they purposefully distribute winning tickets to the same location?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 18:09:52 No.12653044 Report

Quoted By: >>12656793

>>12652143
>the odds of legitimately winning the Idaho state lottery 6 times
its 50%
either it happens or it doesn't

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 01 Feb 2021 18:11:03 No.12653046 Report

Quoted By: >>12655093

>>12653030
>>12652463
She must've manipulated the results somehow, no way it was random. Maybe she had insider help, maybe she exploited a weakness in the game's system, maybe she bought shitload of tickets when it was actually worth to do so (promotions or holiday prices can rarely bring the expected winnings to over 1 dollar per dollar invested).

Or maybe the story is a hoax.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 02 Feb 2021 02:10:22 No.12654768 Report

Quoted By:

FBI investigated winners of the McDonald's monopoly game over this same sort of thing

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 02 Feb 2021 04:38:09 No.12655093 Report

Quoted By:

>>12653046
Bishop, Texas has a population of about 3000 so it's odd that three multi-million dollar scratch off tickets would end up there. Also the woman who won didn't live in Bishop. She travelled there specifically to one particular store to buy the winning tickets. IIRC, she did end up buying hundreds of tickets each time, probably because she knew the winning ticket was in a particular batch but couldn't ask for a particular ticket off the roll of tickets.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 02 Feb 2021 16:44:13 No.12656793 Report

Quoted By:

>>12653044
Checked and based.

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