The most recent supernova in our galaxy was observed on October 9, 1604, SN 1604. According to the estimates in galaxies like ours, supernovae occur on average once every 50 years. But we have not seen any supernova in our galaxy already 400 years. What does it mean?
1) Supernovae do occur in our galaxy, they just happened to be in distant parts of galaxy behind interstellar gas, that blocks our view
2) It's just statistics. Let's assume that probability of supernova occuring is 50% every 50 years, then probability of not occuring during 400 years is 0.5^8 = 0.00390625 or 1/256, which is smol, but not impossible.
3) Estimates are actually wrong and our galaxy is unique or kinda like this?
4) Something else?
1) Supernovae do occur in our galaxy, they just happened to be in distant parts of galaxy behind interstellar gas, that blocks our view
2) It's just statistics. Let's assume that probability of supernova occuring is 50% every 50 years, then probability of not occuring during 400 years is 0.5^8 = 0.00390625 or 1/256, which is smol, but not impossible.
3) Estimates are actually wrong and our galaxy is unique or kinda like this?
4) Something else?
