Hello, /sci/, I'd like to discuss COVID-19 and the flu.
The most common argument I'm seeing regarding why we have virtually no flu cases this season is because masks and lockdowns will prevent its spread. However, I believe these same cultural things should be reducing the spread of COVID-19. So, I have a mathematical problem to pose.
>Assume IFR of COVID-19 is 100x higher than IFR of flu
>Assume the same cultural changes that reduce the spread of the flu also reduce the spread of COVID-19
>The original reproduction rate R0 will be scaled by a factor A (representing the cultural shift of cleanliness). This scaling factor will apply both to the flu and to COVID-19
>Assume the flu count for this season is 1000x lower than previous years.
>Using these assumptions, what is the relative, rescaled production rates of COVID-19 and the flu?
I have a PhD in physics, so I can handle any math you toss at me. What's the answer?
The most common argument I'm seeing regarding why we have virtually no flu cases this season is because masks and lockdowns will prevent its spread. However, I believe these same cultural things should be reducing the spread of COVID-19. So, I have a mathematical problem to pose.
>Assume IFR of COVID-19 is 100x higher than IFR of flu
>Assume the same cultural changes that reduce the spread of the flu also reduce the spread of COVID-19
>The original reproduction rate R0 will be scaled by a factor A (representing the cultural shift of cleanliness). This scaling factor will apply both to the flu and to COVID-19
>Assume the flu count for this season is 1000x lower than previous years.
>Using these assumptions, what is the relative, rescaled production rates of COVID-19 and the flu?
I have a PhD in physics, so I can handle any math you toss at me. What's the answer?
