/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12416289

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Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 20:20:08 2020 No.12416289 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12416294 >>12416304 >>12416365 >>12416400 >>12416536 >>12416556 >>12416566 >>12417866 >>12418090 >>12418126 >>12418157 >>12418166 >>12418269

Just did a paper about pokerstar and how their software is rigged. Ive analyzed more than 300,000 hands and the amounts of Flushs and Straights that happenned is basically impossible. I concluded that there is a 99.5% that their software is rigged with really high confidence.

Just sent the paper to pokerstaes, how much they will pay me to not tell any1?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:21:18 No.12416294 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
You've already fucked up, son, so nothing now.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:23:33 No.12416304 Report

Quoted By: >>12416316

>>12416289
People that gamble on general are idiots so they probably wouldn't care

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:25:21 No.12416316 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416304
>People that gamble on general are idiots
lmao retard.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:33:30 No.12416365 Report

Quoted By: >>12416379 >>12416475

>>12416289
Brainlet here. How did you gather all the data? Was it hard to analyse?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:35:12 No.12416379 Report

Quoted By: >>12416390

>>12416365
OP played 300k hands of poker obviously.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:37:06 No.12416390 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416379
Based and gambling-pilled

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:39:04 No.12416400 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
There is a higher probability your maths is wrong. Players on the 2+2 forums have analyzed databases with hundreds of millions of hands and the statistics are always legit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:49:43 No.12416456 Report

Quoted By: >>12416504

OP here

I didnt do this alone. I have a group of 6 people, including me, doings this and each played 50k hands. Then each of us did our analysis on the data and 5 of us came to the same conclusion(3 of those 5 have PHD in math, 1 is doing a masters and the other 2 are undergraduate(me and my friend)), the sixth one, my friend, just made huge mistakes, so his conclusion eas gibberish.

I saw the 2+2 forum, so theyre either shills or people who didnt actually do the math.

This study made REALLY clear that pokerstars (atleast MTT tables) are rigged. And to be honest it makes sense, most of the tournaments wouldnt make a profit for pokerstars, the prize pool is just to big compared to the buy-ins

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 20:53:55 No.12416475 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416365
Pokerstars has a feature that saves your hand history into txt. If you know some coding it gets really easy to organize the data and then is just statistics

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:00:48 No.12416504 Report

Quoted By: >>12416516 >>12416538

>>12416456
You do realise if PS were caught rigging their RNG it would destroy them. They rake in billions each year already so why would they risk that?!

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:04:08 No.12416516 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416504
>why would they risk that?
Ignorance and greed are a couple good reasons. They could also have an unintentional bias in RNG.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:07:16 No.12416536 Report

Quoted By: >>12416547

>>12416289
You're a retard, there are pro players play more than 300k hands in a month and have been doing so for years. Every pro also has a database of stats on all their hands. Figure the rest out for yourself.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:07:59 No.12416538 Report

Quoted By: >>12416559

>>12416504
To gain even more, you underestimate humans greed... And they really did a good job hiding how they rig (the phd's guess they have classifications to each player and whats the best way to suck money out of him, and ofc a limit of players to rig [THIS IS PURE SPECULATION])

The Phd's were really clever to find proof that they did it, they did a Really good job of hiding it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:09:07 No.12416547 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416536
you're the retard if u think they would rig a table with proplayers and media influemcers in it...

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:10:07 No.12416556 Report

Quoted By: >>12416566

>>12416289
Anon they will kill you before they pay you.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:10:51 No.12416559 Report

Quoted By: >>12416617

>>12416538
> 50k hands per player
> 300k hands in total
> that's enough data to determine use of classifications and bias
For math PhD's they don't seem to understand basic statistics and required sample sizes.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:11:27 No.12416566 Report

Quoted By: >>12416593

>>12416289
>>12416556
This OP, for such a good study you really should have published BEFORE sending it to the enemy. Ever heard of Notting letting a defendant see the evidence before a trial? Same concept.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:16:57 No.12416592 Report

Quoted By: >>12416610

I have a degree in masturbate an I am shocked that gamble software is rigged all those degrees and that understanding of how math.random functions work I always thought casinos where fair for both sides from its basic construct and gambling more would win you more I might just not know what it means to have a legally rigged casino but hey 50k each might be to low of a resolution to do these calculations I would suggest to double your hand amount each to find out more

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:17:05 No.12416593 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416566
I dont care if they rig the game or not, if you play optimally you can stay somewhat on profit. We just want some reward to seal our mouth

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:19:43 No.12416610 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416592

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 03 Dec 2020 21:21:01 No.12416617 Report

Quoted By: >>12417895

>>12416559
300k hands is enought to identify an existence of bias if its strong enough. Do u know their are way to measure the probability of a hypothesis being true. 99.5% Didnt come of thin air.

About classification, it was pure speculations and its not included on the paper. I repeat, the matters of "classification" is a wild guess

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 04:12:20 No.12417866 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
I miss Full Tilt, they had the best software and games like rush poker

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 04:29:26 No.12417895 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416617
According to your OP, your null hypothesis is that they are not rigged. There are so many ways to rig the software that whatever parameter space your analysis is using will be very high dimensional. In particular, once the number of dimensions exceeds your sample size ( = 300k), freshman-tier hypothesis testing becomes completely uninformative.
Now this by itself doesn't necessarily invalidate your analysis, but without more specific details of the model used, it's reasonable to be skeptical of your allegation.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 04:58:08 No.12417974 Report

Quoted By:

Then take advantage of that and play flush and straight draws aggressively, and fold when villains are likely to have a flush or straight? What's the problem. Easy money

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 05:10:29 No.12418016 Report

Quoted By:

You see, they have mathematicians and staticians who study poker working directly to them, all to detect AIs playing. It sounds unprobable that they wouln't know about the rigged RNG.

What is the order of the deviation from the expected values? Just curious, as I play MTT once in a while.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 05:48:39 No.12418090 Report

Quoted By: >>12418120

>>12416289
Even if the system was rigged (which lets face it with sci tier math ability it's not) it doesn't mean it's maliciously rigged. You could simply have a problem with one of the steps of the process that leads to more flushes which in of itself doesn't really impact the game much so long as it's not favoring some players with said high hands. It could even be intentional to make the games "more exiting". You obviously won't get any money from it especially since you revealed your knowledge to them. At best case you would have used the knowledge to game the system fro millions, at worst case you could have sold a fix for thousands. Now you got nothing.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:03:20 No.12418120 Report

Quoted By:

>>12418090
>which lets face it with sci tier math ability it's not
This post made me curious, so I looked up what one of the biggest game certifiers have as guidelines, and their RNG validation test ddn't catch my eye. It had ten or so tests that are widely known, like chi-square and testing overlapping. For downscaling they just say that the targets must be equally probable.

GLI is name of the company.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:06:05 No.12418126 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
Why did you send it to Poker Stars idiot? Should have submitted it to some independent journal

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:14:55 No.12418142 Report

Quoted By:

>whistleblowing instead of blackmailing
You're never gonna make it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:18:56 No.12418157 Report

Quoted By: >>12418167 >>12418261

>>12416289
>recorded the values from an RNG then ran some simple permutation functions with a calculator on the outcomes vs what should randomly occur
>thinks he is some kind of special genius for doing this simple shit
You know literally every computer scientist right out of college can do this right asshat? Apparently not

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:22:07 No.12418166 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
How did you gather the 300k hands? Expect a scare letter about illegally using their data.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 06:22:33 No.12418167 Report

Quoted By: >>12418261

>>12418157
op thinks he is a god for being able to punch a formula into excel. Top lel

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 07:02:18 No.12418261 Report

Quoted By:

>>12418157
>>12418167
There's a difference between being able to do something and figuring out what to do in the first place.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 04 Dec 2020 07:09:05 No.12418269 Report

Quoted By:

>>12416289
Lol youneed to do a paper to find that out
Just play 3 games with aas little money and you'll realize there are pokerbots teaming up on you getting royal flushes left and right.

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