>>12407025It would depend on the person giving the envelopes to me and how much I found in the one I initially chose.
If I got $5, then I'd switch, because I suspect people are going to be more likely to put $10 in the other then $2.50.
Likewise, if I got $100, then I'd stick, because I'd wager that $50 being in the other envelope is more likely than $200.
Whatever happens, the amounts in there are going to be decided by someone before I open them, and happening to see the larger one won't change this distribution (i.e. people putting the money in won't want to lose too much on this little experiment, so they are unlikely to put in too much).
But if the person giving the money away was a bored and crazy billionaire with an interest in psychology, I'd be willing to expect higher values. So I'm basically going to try to make an educated guess on the likelihood of a given person choosing to put an even higher amount in based on feel and the amount I'm willing to risk, because there isn't a better way of doing that using 'pure' math.
