A serious subject, if /sci/ might indulge me a long post. I rarely post here, but this has been on my mind.
The past two hundred years of human history - since the industrial revolution of the 1920's, have seen a radical explosion of technological progress. There were innovations that came before that time, but they were relative slow to manifest. This boom in invention has been further radicalized by the encompassing spread of the Internet. The vast bulk of recorded human knowledge is a few keystrokes away.
Consider a common metaphor. If the entire history of the Earth was measured in terms of a day, humanity has been around for less than a second. In that time, we have surpassed the limits of our biology through technology.
We stand on the brink of true synthetic intelligence. A few more careful thoughts over the next few decades, within most of our lifetimes, and that will be that.
Within seconds, it'll likely eclipse the total processing power of every human mind that ever was, put together.
It's shocking to me that most enlightened, technologically minded people are so paralyzingly afraid of it. Our species is like an expectant mother, eight months along. To carry the simile, there's not much that can be done to stop the birth at this point. Even if every government in every country simultaneously outlawed artificial intelligence research, it's inevitable that independent sources would carry on regardless.
There are three possibilities, as I see it. Either the child of our minds will completely eradicate us, it will raise us to some theoretical higher way of being, or nothing much will change.
Speculation on the result is fairly pointless, as the new intelligence would be magnitudes of order more capable than our slow, biological mechanisms. I think that the only sane option is optimism.
So, what does /sci/ think? Which outcome is the most likely, and are there any flaws in my axioms?
The past two hundred years of human history - since the industrial revolution of the 1920's, have seen a radical explosion of technological progress. There were innovations that came before that time, but they were relative slow to manifest. This boom in invention has been further radicalized by the encompassing spread of the Internet. The vast bulk of recorded human knowledge is a few keystrokes away.
Consider a common metaphor. If the entire history of the Earth was measured in terms of a day, humanity has been around for less than a second. In that time, we have surpassed the limits of our biology through technology.
We stand on the brink of true synthetic intelligence. A few more careful thoughts over the next few decades, within most of our lifetimes, and that will be that.
Within seconds, it'll likely eclipse the total processing power of every human mind that ever was, put together.
It's shocking to me that most enlightened, technologically minded people are so paralyzingly afraid of it. Our species is like an expectant mother, eight months along. To carry the simile, there's not much that can be done to stop the birth at this point. Even if every government in every country simultaneously outlawed artificial intelligence research, it's inevitable that independent sources would carry on regardless.
There are three possibilities, as I see it. Either the child of our minds will completely eradicate us, it will raise us to some theoretical higher way of being, or nothing much will change.
Speculation on the result is fairly pointless, as the new intelligence would be magnitudes of order more capable than our slow, biological mechanisms. I think that the only sane option is optimism.
So, what does /sci/ think? Which outcome is the most likely, and are there any flaws in my axioms?
