/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12309724

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Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 01:16:56 2020 No.12309724 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12309885 >>12309902 >>12309905 >>12309996 >>12310072 >>12310104 >>12310180 >>12310812 >>12311028

This whole 50/50 thing seems very weird.
In a situation where one given persons vote is loosely correlated with any other given persons vote, can we estimate the chance of a 5.000.000 people vote between two options only differ by less than 3000?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 01:44:42 No.12309796 Report

Quoted By: >>12309814 >>12310722

If you assume some a priori ratio of voters for each candidate, you can model the outcome of an election as a sum of Bernoulli random variables, which as we all know is just a binomial distribution. You should be able to use this to answer your question.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 01:51:07 No.12309814 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309796
Similarly, if you wanted to assume a wider range of voter preferences, I am not sure of the top of my head how to analytically determine a solution, but you could always simulate the summation I mentioned as use that to determine the distribution of gaps.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:08:55 No.12309862 Report

Quoted By: >>12309892 >>12309993 >>12310082

that's where i live

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:18:06 No.12309885 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309724
>This whole 50/50 thing seems very weird.
It isn't. You're just rationalizing the fact that your champion, whoever he is, is not winning by a landslide: you'd rather assume fraud than to admit your country is electorally split in half. And I say electorally because your electoral system is absolute trash. Not that it didn't happen relatively recently: remember Gore vs Bush.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:20:40 No.12309892 Report

Quoted By: >>12309993 >>12310082

>>12309862
hey me too

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:23:12 No.12309902 Report

Quoted By: >>12309941 >>12310005

>>12309724
Game theory, somebody who is losing will try to gain as much voters as they need and voters don’t want to vote if their vote isn’t needed

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:23:32 No.12309905 Report

Quoted By: >>12309915 >>12309917 >>12310230 >>12311049

>>12309724
democracy aka tyranny of the majority. or as i call it the delusion that somehow being at the mercy of the populace makes you any more free than being at the mercy of the despot.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:28:55 No.12309915 Report

Quoted By: >>12310050

>>12309905
We don't have pure democracy. We have representative democracy and, more to the point, we have rights enumerated in the constitution, and a judiciary to strike down bills wherein the majority tramples over said rights thereby protecting the minority.
you knew all that and posted anyway.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:29:07 No.12309917 Report

Quoted By: >>12310050

>>12309905
>this is your brain on /pol/
Never consume /pol/ kids, or you might end up like this anon.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 02:37:26 No.12309941 Report

Quoted By: >>12309998 >>12310023 >>12310722

>>12309902
Exactly. The whole pause in the count was extremely weird. They have determine how much extra ballots to print. If they print not enough, then their effort was wasted and the risk was not worth it. If they print too many, then it becomes too obvious and easily detected by comparing voter turnout rates among populations to other similar cities and previous years.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:04:45 No.12309993 Report

Quoted By: >>12310082

>>12309862
>>12309892
Me three.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:07:07 No.12309996 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309724
No man 5 million voters in the state, 140 million in the country, and it was decided by 3k totally man your vote matters dude just a single vote can change the election man you have to get out and vote

Sometime I think they're just mocking us, telling us to start making our own shit

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:08:42 No.12309998 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309941
This

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:11:25 No.12310005 Report

Quoted By: >>12310032

>>12309902
you do realize that all the votes were cast before these results started coming out, right? and that the results coming in are exclusively ballots that were cast in advance?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:16:23 No.12310023 Report

Quoted By: >>12310028

>>12309941
Real ballots of hidden watermarks that only certain printers can create

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:17:26 No.12310028 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310023
>Real ballots have hidden watermarks
***

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:20:22 No.12310032 Report

Quoted By: >>12310048

>>12310005
You can back date them.
You can print them ahead of time 300k worth and just hold onto the ones you don't need.
You can dump them in transit.
You can do a whole lot of things. They are counted afterwards which is retarded. The only real way to know is to count them before.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:33:45 No.12310048 Report

Quoted By: >>12310068

>>12310032
MAGAtards are seething

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:34:49 No.12310050 Report

Quoted By: >>12310057

>>12309915
every year individual rights are trampled on more and more. representative democracy is just pure democracy with extra steps. the check and balances don't assure anything.

>>12309917
/pol/ is a bunch of racial tribal socialists. so no, i'm not /pol/.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:39:42 No.12310057 Report

Quoted By: >>12310059

>>12310050
>i'm not /pol/.
Then you're just stupid and ignorant all on your own. Congratulations

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:41:21 No.12310059 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310057
far less stupid and ignorant than you will ever be.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:50:28 No.12310068 Report

Quoted By: >>12310076 >>12310114

>>12310048
I'm just presenting answers to a riddle. Personally I want Biden to win so we can return to normal and all my friends to stop talking about Trump all the god damn time. Like when Elon launched his rocket and nobody even notices. It's politics 100% of the time. I can't handle 4 more years of Trump madness. I just want it all to end.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:52:03 No.12310072 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309724
most democratic elections tend to be ~50/50 between the two largest parties. i think it'd be weirder if it were otherwise

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 03:54:22 No.12310076 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310068
did you hear dumbpf had 2 scoops instead of 1?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:00:01 No.12310082 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309862
>>12309892
>>12309993
you want a medal?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:11:14 No.12310104 Report

Quoted By: >>12310109 >>12310182 >>12310722

>>12309724

You seriously don't understand the problem.
This is a corollary to the Central Limit Theorem

In any system of choice where all choices are reduced to a side of A or B, That equates to a large set of binomial distributions being averaged, then divided by their mean into an A side and a B side.

So for each issue, regardless of binomial distribution, the average of all those distributions will be Gaussian, and will divide into two equal sides.

That means in any two party system, all issues will be reduced to two equal sides. Those issues that are not in contention don't matter. Those issues in contention regardless of distribution divide equally on both sides due to averaging the averages.

It is not weird that the votes approach 50/50; it would be weird if they didn't.

This is why we need rank choice voting and the elimination of the primary. It would destroy political parties.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:13:09 No.12310109 Report

Quoted By: >>12310125

>>12310104
Ranked choice would be a massive improvement, but if we're going to reform voting there are better systems than ranked choice. It might be politically easier to push for ranked choice, though, since it is the most thoroughly tested system that isn't first past the post.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:16:22 No.12310114 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310068
That's not just because of trump, that's because Elon sucks

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:22:03 No.12310125 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310109

Agreed. But coupled with the elimination of the primary, and it would be a good start.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:57:08 No.12310180 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309724
I see you've actually posted some common sense on a forum devoted to """"science"""". I can understand your mistake. We do not do that here. We only suck off tech CEOs and post unrealistic futuristic scenarios while pretending to understand the knotted pile of gibberish that is quantum bullshit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 04:58:54 No.12310182 Report

Quoted By: >>12310235

>>12310104
Actually, the problem is nobody believes in the government or votes anymore, so feds have created a tv show every two years where they claim every high profile race is neck and neck and every vote matters, then they just make up the votes after giving americans a busybox voting booth that does nothing so the people don't kill the government and its billionaire owners.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 05:25:22 No.12310230 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309905
you get rid of the despot, you cant get rid of a president and his public servants

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 05:27:58 No.12310235 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310182#
>>Actually, the problem is nobody believes in the government or votes anymore
since after WW1 which killed belle epoque, ie it was peak hedonism, with men being super coomers and women being super whores, muh technological progress, muh flying cars in year 2000, not aware of any bad consequence for their behaviors

THe loss of the hardon for the dogmas of the human rights is depicted and the usual crap about the bourgeois and boredom is found in Musil. Musil is the usual yuppie atheist homo sex fiend coomer who digs phenomenology , mediation and mysticism in dilettante after being bored from the bourgeois humanism hyping science and progress. The same crap from Proust. No wonder intellectuals and their fanbase loves him.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 10:53:12 No.12310722 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309796
>>12310104
I don't think this addresses the question (I might be wrong).

If you asked 100 people whether they like option A or B (say coffee and tea), we have no reason to assume that it will end up anywhere next to 50/50.

This >>12309941 goes more in the direction of a plausible direction - namely the difference being that people might not feel like they would even need to vote (or the need to vote) based on their prediction, based on general sentiment they know upfront.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 11:46:57 No.12310812 Report

Quoted By: >>12310816 >>12311028

>>12309724
>This whole 50/50 thing seems very weird.
Not really. Both sides want to win but they also don't want to give too many concessions. Winning by one vote is the ideal case.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 11:47:35 No.12310816 Report

Quoted By:

>>12310812
why?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 13:48:20 No.12311028 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309724
Didnt bush win florida by 500 votes?
>>12310812
no in that case you will problems in court for months. Its better to win by at least few 10k votes

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 06 Nov 2020 13:56:51 No.12311049 Report

Quoted By:

>>12309905
the tranny of the majority..

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