Since our space program involved ejecting some amount of mass of of the earth, and into the distant parts of the solar system, both the change in total mass and the kinetic energy involved should have some (albeit miniscule) effect on the orbit/trajectory of the earth. Is the scale of the effect possible to calculate, or is it too infinitesimal to even estimate? In a hypothetical timeline whethere our space program never happened, would earth be located micrometers away from it's current position, millimeters, or miles?
Let's presume Luna 1 was the very first object to leave orbit due to human activity, though it's reasonable to guess that we might have launched some debris out by accident.