/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12213270

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Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 01:13:46 2020 No.12213270 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12213285 >>12213302 >>12213309 >>12213414 >>12213774

i fucking hate probability, i know its something to do with bayes rule but i have no idea how to fucking do it. help is appreciated

tried with
P(A|bumped) = (.1 * .0005)/.0555

where .1 is P(A), .0005 is P(bumped|A), and .0555 is P(bumped)

just wanna know im doing it right or not

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:24:08 No.12213285 Report

Quoted By: >>12213745

>>12213270
50-50 either it happens or it doesn't.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:34:01 No.12213302 Report

Quoted By: >>12213316

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:37:48 No.12213309 Report

Quoted By: >>12213316 >>12213329

>>12213270
what the fuck does bumped from a flight means?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:41:40 No.12213316 Report

Quoted By: >>12213333

>>12213302
>and p(a|bumped)+p(b|bumped)+p(c|bumped) = 1
if this is right then my way of doing it is wrong

>>12213309
im assuming its liked kicked off the flight

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:42:38 No.12213317 Report

Quoted By: >>12213360

P(B|A) = P(AB) / P(A)
P(A|B) = P(BA) / P(B)
Since P(BA) = P(AB),
P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)

The rest is trivial

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:43:08 No.12213318 Report

Quoted By: >>12213336 >>12213360

p(A|b) just means the proportion of bumped that are A, which is p(b|A)/p(b)

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:46:14 No.12213329 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213309
if a plane is overbooked you have to get another flight

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:48:27 No.12213333 Report

Quoted By: >>12213360

>>12213316
bayes rule is: P(A|b)=P(b|A)*P(A)/P(b)
an example would then be: P(A|b)=.0005*.1/.0555

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 01:49:56 No.12213336 Report

Quoted By: >>12213587

>>12213318
>p(A|b) just means the proportion of bumped that are A
wouldnt that be the same thing as p(b|A) then? (proportion of A people that are bumped)

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:00:42 No.12213360 Report

Quoted By: >>12213392 >>12213587

>>12213317
>P(A|B) = P(BA) / P(B)
>>12213318
this just give me:
.009009
.09009
and .9009

would this be right then?

>>12213333
this is the way i currently did it

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:12:49 No.12213392 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213360
BA is just another way of writing B and A

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:15:07 No.12213396 Report

Quoted By: >>12213406

OP was doing it correctly all along

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:15:29 No.12213397 Report

Quoted By: >>12213406

Simulate the result and enjoy prof seething

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:18:04 No.12213406 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213396
im big brain an didnt even realize it, too bad ima fail the rest of the assignment lol

>>12213397
we are using R in the class, and i fucking hate it. really just need to sit down and learn about it a bit better i think

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 02:22:56 No.12213414 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213270
Look up formulas for
>theorem of total probability
>bayes rule

Think of a sample space S. S is partitioned into 3 spaces, one space is passengers from A, second space is passengers from B and rest is from C (they total up to 100%).

Now in the center you have a area lets say a circle that represents being bumped. You want to find each parititions (Passengers) intersection with the circle in the center (bumped)

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 03:47:37 No.12213587 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213336
No. Imagine 5% of A gets bumped so p(b|A)=0.05, and there's no B or C. Then 100% of bumps are A and p(A|b)=1.
>>12213360
Yeah that's right.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 04:50:25 No.12213745 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213285
I hate probability. I don't even care if this is the correct answer. I'm looking backwards, and I see 100s and 0s everywhere.
If a chance exceeds 99% or falls below 1%, round it and forget the whole thing. Fuck probability.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 10 Oct 2020 05:00:30 No.12213774 Report

Quoted By:

>>12213270
A=1/2000
B=1/200
C=1/20

Filled at A=1/10 B=3/5 C=3/10

A=1/10*1/2000=1/20000 =0.0005
B=3/1000 =0.003
C=3/200 = 0.015

Fucking nigger.

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