>>12148071Different anon.
Imagine there are three doors. One of them is open with a goat.
You know of the two closed doors, one has a car, and one has a goat.
You are asked to pick one of the two closed doors, you therefore have a 50/50 chance to pick the car.
Imagine then that everyone in the studio is killed, and the open door is shut.
A new person comes in, and sees three closed doors, and is asked to pick which door has a car. They are not given the option to switch.
Only one of the three doors has a car behind it, so from their perspective they have a 1/3 chance of choosing the car door.
But the first person knew a better probability distribution. They knew one of the doors had a goat behind it, so the probability for:
Open Closed Closed
having a car behind them was:
0 0.5 0.5
A total of 1
The third person doesn't know about the previously open door, to them they see:
Closed Closed Closed
Which has a probability distribution of
0.33... 0.33... 0.33...
Why does the probability distribution differ depending on the observer? I think you can understand why without me having to explain.
That's what i was trying to meme here
>>12141407Monty looks at the doors, and knows the car probability distribution is actually
0, 1, 0
But the first contestant sees
0, 0.5, 0.5
The second contestant sees
0.3.. 0.3.. 0.3..
It's not difficult to understand
