Let's talk about it guys.
Suppose you have a random generator of natural numbers, it can generate numbers between 1 and an unknown upper number (could be 10, could be one duodecillion, doesn't matter). You roll only one time and get a 6. Even with only one datapoint you can approximately estimate what the upper number that could be generated is. There's a 50% chance of it being smaller than 12, a 90% chance of it being smaller than 60 and so on.
Now, we know that the number of people that have ever born is around 150 billion so our birth rank should be close to that number. We can apply the same reasoning to estimate the total number of people (assuming there is no "upper bound" to how many people can ever be born) that are ever going to be born using a line of reasoning analogous to the one of the random number generator.
Let's take it a step further. Suppose you randomly select moments during the day in wich you turn on the TV for 10 seconds and then you turn it off again. There is a 90% of probability that those 5 secs where after the first 5% of the duration of wichever movie/tv programme you were watching from its beginnig and before the last 5% of its duration from its end. Can we apply the same reasoning to civilization-shaping conditions/course of events? For example, can we say that, since humanity has been a space-faring civilization for ~60 years, there is a 50% chance that we won't be one anymore in a matter of 60 more years, a 75% chance that we won't be one 180 years from now and so on?
If you think the reasoning is flawed explain why.
Suppose you have a random generator of natural numbers, it can generate numbers between 1 and an unknown upper number (could be 10, could be one duodecillion, doesn't matter). You roll only one time and get a 6. Even with only one datapoint you can approximately estimate what the upper number that could be generated is. There's a 50% chance of it being smaller than 12, a 90% chance of it being smaller than 60 and so on.
Now, we know that the number of people that have ever born is around 150 billion so our birth rank should be close to that number. We can apply the same reasoning to estimate the total number of people (assuming there is no "upper bound" to how many people can ever be born) that are ever going to be born using a line of reasoning analogous to the one of the random number generator.
Let's take it a step further. Suppose you randomly select moments during the day in wich you turn on the TV for 10 seconds and then you turn it off again. There is a 90% of probability that those 5 secs where after the first 5% of the duration of wichever movie/tv programme you were watching from its beginnig and before the last 5% of its duration from its end. Can we apply the same reasoning to civilization-shaping conditions/course of events? For example, can we say that, since humanity has been a space-faring civilization for ~60 years, there is a 50% chance that we won't be one anymore in a matter of 60 more years, a 75% chance that we won't be one 180 years from now and so on?
If you think the reasoning is flawed explain why.
