You have $10 and you gamble 1 dollar on every coin flip.
If the coin lands heads, you gain 1 dollar.
If the coin lands tails, you lose 1 dollar.
You play twice, so there are four possible outcomes:

Option 1: you LOSE a dollar on your first round, falling to $9 (losing 10%), then LOSE another dollar on your second round, falling to $8 (losing 11% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 2: you WIN a dollar on your first round, rising to $11 (gaining 10%), then WIN another dollar on your second round, rising to $12 (gaining 9% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 3: you WIN a dollar on your first round, rising to $11 (gaining 10%), then you LOSE a dollar on your second round, falling back down to $10 (losing 9% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 4: you LOSE a dollar on your first round, falling to $9 (losing 10%), then you WIN a dollar on your second round, rising back up to $10 (gaining 11% of previous round's bankroll).

Which of the following options is most likely to happen:
>Option 3 where you gain 10% and lose 9%?
>Option 4 where you lose 10% and gain 11%?

(Hint: only Bayesianists will get this.)