/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12053981

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Anonymous Thu 27 Aug 12:12:45 2020 No.12053981 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12054019

Can someone dumb down doomsday theory to me..

My understanding is that
-i have one consciousness
-the chance of any given consciousness existing at this time is incredibly improbable unless there is a global mass casualty event soon

So why am i not just incredibly lucky?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 27 Aug 2020 12:30:14 No.12054019 Report

Quoted By:

>>12053981
The argument I think you're talking about just states that for any given human; they are statistically unlikely to be among the first few humans ever born. That is, there is a 95% chance that more than 5% of all the humans who will ever live have already been born.

Depending on how you count how many humans there have been, it implies that we should expect the human race to go extinct somewhere between several thousand and several million years from now.

It's not really a very good argument and irrelevant if true.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 27 Aug 2020 14:31:38 No.12054288 Report

Quoted By:

No I think this is dumb enough already.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 27 Aug 2020 21:15:21 No.12055658 Report

Quoted By:

Isn't this theory similar to the German Tank problem?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem

You know you are human number #100billion. So the expected value of total humans during the course of existence is around 200 billion.

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