>>12038797I've been trying to see the net effect by looking for a cumulative death count (all causes) for this year and prior years.
I can't find either.
The CDC has a page on "excess deaths" but their model seems sketchy (unverifiable) for computing the expected deaths as a baseline.
They do a weekly (or some other interval) expected death extrapolation for each municipality based on previous years and only add a tally for excess deaths when the observed deaths are above the the baseline for that week and set the excess deaths to 0 when they are below the baseline. This method of counting ignores any reductions in death (you might expect to see less car accidents or deaths at work, for example) and could make a normal two-week death count look like excess (if there were 10 less than expected in the first week and 10 more than expected in the second, their method would count 10 excess deaths while there were no excess deaths for the two-week interval).
I also doubt their extrapolation methods account for the age distribution for each region or migration patterns.
I wish they would just post raw numbers of deaths (all causes) over time for this year and the last few years.
