/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #12017799

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2011 ES4

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 12:08:03 2020 No.12017799 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12017814

Does anyone know if it will actually hit or miss?

The only news I've been able to find on it in recent days involves internet "Pastor" Paul Begley and his end times autism, and the actual graph on JPL only has a 4-day observation period and similarly hasn't been updated since January.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 2020 12:13:27 No.12017814 Report

Quoted By: >>12017935

>>12017799
Does it matter?
It is only 25 meters. Max it can do is doing a tsunami or destroying a city.
The unholy Wikipedia says it won't happen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_ES4

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 2020 13:05:22 No.12017935 Report

Quoted By:

>>12017814
>Around 1 September 2020 (±7 days) the asteroid is expected to pass about 0.0005 AU (75,000 km; 46,000 mi) from Earth. But the asteroid could pass as far away as 0.11 AU (16,000,000 km; 10,000,000 mi), which could make the asteroid much fainter and more difficult to recover.
Problem is, even with the greentext I just pasted, there's just not enough information to confirm any of this from what I've seen. Besides, everyone seems to be uncertain as to whether it's 20, 30 or 50 meters.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 2020 13:31:35 No.12018000 Report

Quoted By: >>12018026

>2011 ES4 (also written 2011 ES4) is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 25 meters (82 feet) in diameter.
>For many asteroids a value of ?~2 g/cm3 has been assumed. However, density depends on the asteroid's spectral type. Krasinsky et al. gives calculations for the mean densities of C, S, and M class asteroids as 1.38, 2.71, and 5.32 g/cm3

$m = 3350 \times \left(\frac{4}{3} \times \pi \times \left(\frac{25}{2}\right)^3 \right) = 2.74 \times 10^7 kg$

>he asteroid will fly 0.00048 astronomical units away or about 44,618 miles at a speed of 18,253 miles per hour (815982.22 meters per second)

$K = \frac{1}{2} \times \left( 2.74 \times 10^7 \right) \times \left( 8.16 \times 10^5\right)^2 = 9.12 \times 10^18 J = 2.18 \times 10^11 kTNT$

>The largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, set off by the Soviet Union in 1961, produced an insane 50-megaton (50000 kTNT) blast

$\frac{2.18 \times 10^11}{50000} = 4.36 \ million \ Tsar \ Bombas$

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 2020 13:42:11 No.12018026 Report

Quoted By:

>>12018000
And you expect them to be accurate with only 44 observations on a 4 day period? I ain't buying it unless they've been studying it more and we just don't know it.

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO 2011 ES4 orbit.jpg, 191KiB, 1003x658

Anonymous Mon 17 Aug 2020 13:55:28 No.12018049 Report

Quoted By:

>2011 ES4 (also written 2011 ES4) is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 25 meters (82 feet) in diameter.

>For many asteroids a value of ?~2 g/cm3 has been assumed.

$m = 2 \times 10^3 \times \left(\frac{4}{3} \times \pi \times \left(\frac{25}{2}\right)^3 \right) = 1.64 \times 10^7 kg$

>The asteroid will fly 0.00048 astronomical units away or about 44,618 miles at a speed of 18,253 miles per hour (815982.22 meters per second)

$K = \frac{1}{2} \times \left( 1.64 \times 10^7 \right) \times \left( 8.16 \times 10^5\right)^2 = 5.46 \times 10^18 J = 1.3 \times 10^{8} \ kTNT$

>The largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, set off by the Soviet Union in 1961, produced an insane 50-megaton (50000 kTNT) blast

$\frac{1.3 \times 10^{8}}{50000} \approx 2610 \ Tsar \ Bombas$

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