>>11967673high iq post.
To extrapolate how price relates to the given micro behaviours is a very difficult task though.
Even if you discover an edge it is not enough. with fees, slippage and general execution costs (e.g. exchanges doing frontrunning etc.) you are not guaranteed profit.
You need to beat the market by an order of magnitude greater than just random walk expectation due to the above^ - An edge in itself is not enough; You need a HUGE edge.
It is easier to trade on a macro scale, which avoids those problems - For example, shorting the pound during brexit uncertainty, hedging with puts before coronavirus, buying dollars after worldwide lockdown, buying gold after the oiil crash, longing copper after it became obvious china is going to inflate their growth stats with construction.
Macro trading is pretty easy but will take years before it pays off (given correct position sizing with Kelly).
