/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #11934935

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US Dollar, Debt, and Modeling

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 21:09:26 2020 No.11934935 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>11934957 >>11934986 >>11938439 >>11938498

I'm worried about the US Dollar and the US Debt, and the world that could take shape if the Chinese Yuan or the Euro are allowed to become the World Reserve Currency.

Is Dalio a meme? He uses mathematics and algorithmic models to inform his actions, and attempts to convey some of his ideas with charts (pic related). I don't know how he quantifies things, but he also weights possible outcomes by probability to inform his actions.

What are the plans we should have ready for the possible futures that await?

Should I stop worrying about deflation and instability and take the Nasdaq pill?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:12:39 No.11934944 Report

Quoted By: >>11934950

Nothing would be better for the world than USA losing its power.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:15:16 No.11934950 Report

Quoted By: >>11935059

>>11934944
In some respects, yes.

But it will be a dark time if the CCP dictates the global culture. You’ve seen how little value they place on the lives of their own citizens? Imagine how they value the rest of humanity.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:23:10 No.11934957 Report

Quoted By: >>11934960 >>11934968 >>11934970

>>11934935
How does the US maintain reserve status with a declining real economy

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:23:46 No.11934960 Report

Quoted By:

>>11934957
biggest military

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:28:00 No.11934968 Report

Quoted By: >>11934983

>>11934957
>How does the US maintain reserve status with a declining real economy
I’m not sure that’s the most important variable, but how I’d also want to compare that to the other countries.

Which countries don’t have declining real economies, and would any of them have an appealing currency?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:28:57 No.11934970 Report

Quoted By: >>11935433

>>11934957
Because nobody trusts any other currency.
>Euro is growing in stature (recent moves to buy Eurobonds/Eurostocks) but its still in its infancy and there's still deep political divisions
>Yuan has strict capital controls which harms internationalization. And don't get me started with China's shit with Taiwan, India, Japan etc. The US has only turned on China for 1 year and they're already in a dogfight they're not ready for
>British Pound could have been a cool currency to invest in but it's too small and brexit shitshow will carry on for years, preventing any meaningful investment
>Japanese Yen is ok and is actually sought after. But dollar has just too many good natural advantages over it. If the dollar did ever fall, my bet is on the Yen taking over.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:34:46 No.11934983 Report

Quoted By: >>11936383

>>11934968
>Which countries don’t have declining real economies, and would any of them have an appealing currency?
A proper federal EU could realistically challenge the dollar. Doubt it would outright replace it but challenge it. If Britain sorts out its shit, I could see the GBP soaring in 20 years time desu if the EU fails. Japan is on terminal decline and China is now in a cold war with America.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 21:36:10 No.11934986 Report

Quoted By: >>11935961

>>11934935
>A fucking meme chart
Lel, you got trolled.
Also, might be an interesting read for you
https://www.voimagold.com/insight/europe-has-been-preparing-a-global-gold-standard-since-the-1970s
>Research reveals that European central banks have prepared a new international gold standard. Since the 1970s, policies that paved the way for an equitable and durable monetary system have gradually been implemented.
>We have established that since the 1970s Europe has been countering the dollar hegemony and wanted gold back in the center of a new “equitable and durable system taking into account the interests of the developing countries.” Subsequently, they have equalized official gold reserves internationally, strategically allocated their gold, upgraded their gold to current industry standards, and are now promoting gold as the “perfect piggybank” and as “protection against high inflation.”
>The trend in Asia is also increasingly against dollar dominance and in favor of gold. In May, 2019, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mooted the idea of a new international currency pegged to gold. Reuters reported in April, 2020, that the “president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) called for a new super-sovereign currency to offset the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, which he predicted would decline long term, while gold prices rally.” The President of the SGE also said: “The global clout of the United States will reduce, while the status of the European Union and China will rise in global affairs.”
>In line with the long-term trend discussed above is that economic strength is more equal than it was in 1971. Fifty years ago, the U.S. and Western Europe (Euro Area) accounted for 59% of global GDP; currently their share is 40%. This rhymes with Pompidou’s remark on “the existence of more centers of economic and political power makes things more complicated but in the longer term has greater advantages.”

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 22:13:28 No.11935059 Report

Quoted By: >>11935083 >>11935099 >>11935164 >>11936436

>>11934950
Not really. Because CCP has no history of exporting it's system abroad.

Us export oriented globohomo is a blight on the planet.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 22:22:20 No.11935083 Report

Quoted By:

>>11935059
>CCP has no history of exporting it's system abroad
have you looked at african countries instituting their own "great firewalls"?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 22:30:53 No.11935099 Report

Quoted By: >>11935164

>>11935059
Right..that’s why whenever trump suggested with any real possibility of pulling out of some area, everyone would cry about the poor oppressed towelheads that would die if we left. It’s also why Obama never even attempted any major withdrawal (only publicity stating one, and even then we didn’t really leave) Israel wouldn’t exist without US intervention, regardless of what you think about it. The US thinks of itself as global cops. This doesn’t always result in the best outcomes, but the democratic process demands that it at the very least appear altruistic. China as the global power would just see countries openly exploited if/when the CCP decided it would benefit China and it would have zero incentive to treat any dissenters as human.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 24 Jul 2020 22:52:52 No.11935164 Report

Quoted By:

>>11935099
>>11935059
That was actually a HUGE part of the Beijing Olympics. They were pedaling their surveillance and peasant control systems to the rest of the world, South American countries were supposed to be heavily targeted and very interested.

They were saying to the world, both directly and indirectly, look what a state controlled population can do. Look at how our approach is working.

Global Social Credit Scores coming to a country near you. Questioning the state is sedition, go to reeducation camp.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 00:09:25 No.11935381 Report

Quoted By: >>11935409

To put it simply the (((global banking system))) since the 40s has gotten so dependent on the dollar as the reserve currency that there is no way for it to switch without a full system collapse on a scale comparable to the Great Depression and starting from scratch.

On the other hand the US government can only push it so much with the Fed purchasing risky assets and the national debt skyrocketing without causing substantial inflation. Most likely inflation over the next few years will track to the increase of the national debt, that is way huge.

Within the decade a new global currency system based on essentially managed blockchain, that is a consortium of internationally sanctioned corporations running the blockchain software with unique user wallets for all citizens, will almost certainly become available. If we can stave off the Great Depression tier economic collapse until then we can control when it starts and substantially limit the magnitude of societal impact and suffering of the transition.

Unfortunately if Trump loses the election I don’t really have faith in the Fed to keep things under control for that long.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 00:22:24 No.11935409 Report

Quoted By:

>>11935381
t. Ideologically possessed parrot

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 00:32:19 No.11935433 Report

Quoted By:

>>11934970
>political divisions
This will become the EU strength. Trump showed how fast and unpredicted political and economic shifts can happen and what its effect can be on they world economy. Other countries will wonder if political divisions risk the same fate as Iran (going from having a deal to having no deal and the US blocking dollar trades). A devided EU will be more predictable so you can make moves before policy ends up being in effect. Much safer.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 04:11:14 No.11935961 Report

Quoted By:

>>11934986
>Lel, you got trolled.
?
It’s largely just a way to visualize concepts.

>gold standard
Wasn’t that basically a 19th century meme that the UK forced on the world in its waning dominance, that failed to keep stable prices and economies?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 07:50:00 No.11936383 Report

Quoted By: >>11936401

>>11934983
>I could see the GBP soaring in 20 years time desu if the EU fails
The UK is being browned out anon, in 20 years time there will be wars on this soil.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 08:03:29 No.11936401 Report

Quoted By: >>11936478

>>11936383
>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html
Read this. Northern Europe is safe. America, Southern Europe and South East Asia is giga fucked. It's why I think GBP/Yen could stage a comeback. A fully federal EU could also work but is unlikely to ever occur.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 08:32:59 No.11936436 Report

Quoted By: >>11936466

>>11935059
>Not really
Smug fuckwit, they literally annex Tibet. They just annexed Hong Kong, and they'll annex Taiwan next.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 09:03:16 No.11936466 Report

Quoted By: >>11936479 >>11938437

>>11936436
/sci/ Everyone.
And people here were supposed to be intelligent.

All the example cited were or have been chinese territory for longer then the existence of the USA.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 09:21:55 No.11936478 Report

Quoted By:

>>11936401
anyone taking the NYtimes seriously needs a to be more skeptical.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 25 Jul 2020 09:23:19 No.11936479 Report

Quoted By:

>>11936466
>All the example cited were or have been chinese territory for longer then the existence of the USA.
nice ccp talking point/lie

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:13:05 No.11938437 Report

Quoted By:

>>11936466
>if CCP claims you are property of China, then it is true.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:13:54 No.11938439 Report

Quoted By: >>11938502

>>11934935
why would you choose to bring this thread to /sci/ instead of /biz/?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:46:28 No.11938498 Report

Quoted By: >>11938519

>>11934935
This should really be in /pol/, or /int/, but ok.
Chinese economy is a meme, built on pyramid schemes. According to people who know much more about the situation than I do. Very inefficient.
Global trade will change, partly due to rising standards in China, which won't be the world's factory anymore. Like the Arabs with their oil, Chinese have been desperately trying to make investments, and like Arabs, a lot haven't been successful.
They've "invested" in dollar, for instance. It benefitted US 'cause they effectively get cheaper goods without inflation, and the Chinese, as they get to export more to US.
But they've also been investing in Africa.
Europeans left Africa, as they couldn't see the human potential in it, while Chinese managed to harness it well.
China needs to optimise it's government, ease restrictions, etc., as otherwise, even with the impending collapse and move to socialism in the west, it will be left behind again once the west rebounds in about 50 years or so.
But shorter term? Prepare for a global race war.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:47:33 No.11938502 Report

Quoted By: >>11938507

>>11938439
/biz/ isn’t knowledgeable about modeling or history, and would only care about how to profit from this. Also being heavily swamped with /pol/ right now, so their answers are very predictable.

/sci/ has a much more detached and rational perspective.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:49:33 No.11938507 Report

Quoted By:

>>11938502
just because /biz/ is shit doesnt make a thread about finance belong on the science & math board

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 01:54:15 No.11938519 Report

Quoted By: >>11938537

>>11938498
I think it’s relevant to the board, and looking at the catalog, I think it’s contributing to the average thread quality.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 26 Jul 2020 02:04:47 No.11938537 Report

Quoted By:

>>11938519
>I think
who cares?
>it’s relevant to the board
no it isn't, especially when there is a board dedicated to finance
>and looking at the catalog, I think it’s contributing to the average thread quality.
not an argument

Anonymous

Anonymous ## Mod Sun 26 Jul 2020 09:55:04 No.11939403 Report

Quoted By:

This thread was moved to >>>/biz/20699303

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