Lab leak vs. zoonotic
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Quoted By: >>11902870 >>11902957 >>11903535 >>11906011 >>11906091
What is the likelihood that SARS-CoV-2 was a lab leak vs. a natural zoonotic transfer?
It seems there's no conclusive evidence for either, right now. It could've evolved naturally in the wild, or it could've gained traits through human manipulation in a lab, or it could've evolved in a lab without any human manipulation (possibly causing it to evolve human-infecting traits more reliably/quickly).
No animal in the wild has yet been found with something genetically close enough to the virus, and there's no public sign of it coming out of the lab. But if it was zoonotic, it may take a long time to find the animal, and if it was a lab leak, obviously they'd try to cover up any evidence.
I know this thread isn't going to solve the issue conclusively, but it'd be nice to have a balanced, sober discussion about it, with Bayesian reasoning. Please keep conspiracy theorizing and politics out of it.
It seems there's no conclusive evidence for either, right now. It could've evolved naturally in the wild, or it could've gained traits through human manipulation in a lab, or it could've evolved in a lab without any human manipulation (possibly causing it to evolve human-infecting traits more reliably/quickly).
No animal in the wild has yet been found with something genetically close enough to the virus, and there's no public sign of it coming out of the lab. But if it was zoonotic, it may take a long time to find the animal, and if it was a lab leak, obviously they'd try to cover up any evidence.
I know this thread isn't going to solve the issue conclusively, but it'd be nice to have a balanced, sober discussion about it, with Bayesian reasoning. Please keep conspiracy theorizing and politics out of it.
