Okay, so we all know the argument that we are likely living in a simulation: infinite simulations, 1/inf probability we are in base reality, 100% probability we are in a simulation.

I used to believe this wholeheartedly until recently. I have since changed my mind. Hear me out:

Information density and compute speeds are limited by the parent simulations. I.e. Size, universe complexity, and the speed of time relative to the parent simulation must always be less than the parent. E.g. one computer cannot simulate two equivalent computers in real-time. Now, if you are living in one of the deep simulations which is super slow, small, and uncomplex, you wouldn't know because you have nothing to compare it to. However what that does mean is that after a few child simulations, either there is not enough time in the base universe for the deepest simulation to produce a new simulation, or the universe will become too small and simple to be able to simulate anything else. Compounding this effect is the fact that even if you were to build a computer out of the strongest and most computationally dense material, size is limited by gravitational collapse. This means that computers are limited to roughly to the same order of magnitude as stars in size, which isnt very large in the scale of our universe. This shows that the simulation to simulation efficiency would be EXTREMELY small. So the number of simulations that exist vs base universe time starts at 1 and approaches some integer asymptotically.

All this just to say that the number of possible simulations is finite and possibly very small. This is significant because that means that the chance we are living in base reality as actually non-zero, unlike the original theory would suggest.