Hello, I'm interested in some gambling/probability theory.
There's a popular game called CS:GO crash and it has multiple variants but it's all essentially the same. You place a bet and it shows a ticking animation, going from 1.00x to couple thousands and it can randomly crash (hence the name). The goal is to get out before it crashes and you win the stake multiplied by the current value. You can see it in action if you search for "bustabit" which is a bitcoin variant.
I'm familiar with how slot games work and how they can guarantee a certain "return to player" based on the distribution of symbols, prize value and the probability of each occurring on each reel. But, I'm somewhat confused how a game like this can be profitable for the site owner and how you can guarantee RTP.
I know that you can generate round values so that the chance of it occurring is 1/x which would make it a fair bet. But, what about the behavior of the players? Certain players play it safe with small bets, looking to double their bets. In the long term, they're dead since numbers below 2 occur roughly 50% of the time. However, not everyone plays like this and there's all kinds of chances of players winning a lot in the short-term.
How do you account for player choice in this game? Is there a way to mathematically model it? Do you just hope most players will play it safe and balance off the short-term wins of the erratic players?
There's a popular game called CS:GO crash and it has multiple variants but it's all essentially the same. You place a bet and it shows a ticking animation, going from 1.00x to couple thousands and it can randomly crash (hence the name). The goal is to get out before it crashes and you win the stake multiplied by the current value. You can see it in action if you search for "bustabit" which is a bitcoin variant.
I'm familiar with how slot games work and how they can guarantee a certain "return to player" based on the distribution of symbols, prize value and the probability of each occurring on each reel. But, I'm somewhat confused how a game like this can be profitable for the site owner and how you can guarantee RTP.
I know that you can generate round values so that the chance of it occurring is 1/x which would make it a fair bet. But, what about the behavior of the players? Certain players play it safe with small bets, looking to double their bets. In the long term, they're dead since numbers below 2 occur roughly 50% of the time. However, not everyone plays like this and there's all kinds of chances of players winning a lot in the short-term.
How do you account for player choice in this game? Is there a way to mathematically model it? Do you just hope most players will play it safe and balance off the short-term wins of the erratic players?
