Probability
No.11640336 ViewReplyOriginalReport
Quoted By: >>11640450 >>11640953 >>11641129 >>11641162
Explain probability shit to me.
I'm playing Pokemon, where I have a 1/4000 chance to get a shiny (rare) Pokemon. The chance for getting it the first try or the millionth try is always the same, I get that much.
But why is it never the first time? On average I need to reset the game 200-300 times to get a shiny Pokemon. The 200-300 range seems to be a magical number, like it was more probable to get it with that many tries.
What is this? Is there an additional probability for winning with a certain amount of tries?
Another thing I can't understand is how it's even possible to win the lottery since the probability is astronomically low. Yet there are people who have won it twice. What do they know that I don't?
I'm playing Pokemon, where I have a 1/4000 chance to get a shiny (rare) Pokemon. The chance for getting it the first try or the millionth try is always the same, I get that much.
But why is it never the first time? On average I need to reset the game 200-300 times to get a shiny Pokemon. The 200-300 range seems to be a magical number, like it was more probable to get it with that many tries.
What is this? Is there an additional probability for winning with a certain amount of tries?
Another thing I can't understand is how it's even possible to win the lottery since the probability is astronomically low. Yet there are people who have won it twice. What do they know that I don't?
