https://www.cassandracapital.net/coronavirusspeculativeprojections
>A more sophisticated model is the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model below.
>Currently, the high estimated R0 of the virus means that the virus is projected to spread widely - peaking on June 7th.
>CFR 12.11% R0 3.73
>Eventually containment measures would be put in place which would decrease the R0 of the virus. It has been calculated (Sanche et al.,) that the measures the Chinese have taken have reduced the R0 of the virus in China by up to 59%. Using this same percentage reduction on our estimated R0, and assuming that these measures are put in place when 1% of the population is infected, provides the much more realistic scenario shown in the graph below.
tl;dr - Between 38 and 24 million Americans dead without containment and social distancing measures. It's not just a flu.
>A more sophisticated model is the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model below.
>Currently, the high estimated R0 of the virus means that the virus is projected to spread widely - peaking on June 7th.
>CFR 12.11% R0 3.73
>Eventually containment measures would be put in place which would decrease the R0 of the virus. It has been calculated (Sanche et al.,) that the measures the Chinese have taken have reduced the R0 of the virus in China by up to 59%. Using this same percentage reduction on our estimated R0, and assuming that these measures are put in place when 1% of the population is infected, provides the much more realistic scenario shown in the graph below.
tl;dr - Between 38 and 24 million Americans dead without containment and social distancing measures. It's not just a flu.
