/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #11508657

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Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 11:12:53 2020 No.11508657 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>11508672 >>11509093 >>11509098 >>11509470 >>11509484 >>11509490 >>11511488

dear virologists,

will Corona
a) die out
b) slow down
c) keep its pace
during spring and summer?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 11:17:07 No.11508672 Report

Quoted By: >>11512596

>>11508657
all of the above

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:19:35 No.11509023 Report

Quoted By: >>11516570

>no difference in spread between the two hemispheres

Yeah, I'm thinking you aren't having a summer vacation this year.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:20:57 No.11509027 Report

Quoted By: >>11509056

South Africa looks fucked to me

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:32:16 No.11509056 Report

Quoted By: >>11509066

>>11509027
>South Africa looks fucked to me
1,170 cases with only 1 death.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:36:20 No.11509066 Report

Quoted By: >>11509081

>>11509056
>looks at the numbers
>not the graph of exponential growth

Where are you guys coming from?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:41:45 No.11509081 Report

Quoted By: >>11511057 >>11516311

>>11509066
South Africa is taking measures to flatten the curve by having a 21 day lockdown.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:47:30 No.11509093 Report

Quoted By:

>>11508657
it will slow down as we discover that 80% of people are just immune or asymptomatic

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 14:50:45 No.11509098 Report

Quoted By: >>11511540

>>11508657
mutate into a new class of prion-virus-animal pathogen that flies around and snuffs us all in our sleep.
t. just trust me bro, i know these things

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 16:58:05 No.11509454 Report

Quoted By:

It will most likely show a cyclical trend eventually, before being much less prevalent altogether.

Ksenia !!/HQMg5yHuiK

Ksenia !!/HQMg5yHuiK Sat 28 Mar 2020 17:03:16 No.11509470 Report

Quoted By: >>11511060 >>11512605 >>11513038

>>11508657
It is a virtual certainty that it will become a seasonal disease. There will be another bump in the epidemiological curve next northern hemisphere winter. In matter of months it will slow down in terms of of new infections per day when the population at risk in areas with local transmission saturates out and climate in northern hemisphere becomes warmer. It will not die out because it is easily transmitted and is not virulent enough to burn itself out, nor to justify an extreme effort from society to isolate all cases.

Note: I am not a virologist.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 17:06:37 No.11509484 Report

Quoted By: >>11512700

>>11508657
The answer to your questions depends on if people go on lockdown. If we do nothing it will spread and everyone will get in a few months. If you take measures to self isolate it will die out

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 17:07:52 No.11509490 Report

Quoted By: >>11509565

>>11508657
Someone needs to just compare the growth of coronavirus across climate zones and see if heat makes a difference. There is probably enough data out there.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 17:27:40 No.11509565 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509490
It's not about the viruses itself it's more about people having weaker immune systems when it gets cold

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 19:13:41 No.11509889 Report

Quoted By: >>11509894

No one has properly estimated the paramaters so it's still unknown. You can fit a curve no matter how shit your data is, so the models they have are approximate in some sense but I would not trust them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 19:15:58 No.11509894 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509889
Also, exponential growth is expected EVERYWHERE, it is very well known virus and bacteria grow at that rate at some intervals, the public health policies only help to change the overall curve not the growth type.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 23:46:30 No.11510717 Report

Quoted By: >>11510735

I read https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/is-blood-type-linked-to-covid-19-risk

but why is it that they don't include being RH negative or positive in the study? Why would you only half ass the study with ABO types and not include RH?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 28 Mar 2020 23:51:46 No.11510735 Report

Quoted By:

>>11510717
Because blood types don't matter in this case

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 01:47:04 No.11510976 Report

Quoted By: >>11511020 >>11512694

I want to get revenge on the Chinese for this, how feasible are ethnic bioweapons?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 02:08:19 No.11511020 Report

Quoted By:

>>11510976
Feasible but horrifying. Most Chinese people don't have a say in their government if you want to hurt the people who hurt you you might want to work for something like an individual based virus that kills a certain person or family.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 02:27:52 No.11511057 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509081
it doesn't matter how long they lockdown if the population ignores the order
South africa can't keep ghouls from fucking shit on the regular, how would they stop them now

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 02:28:36 No.11511060 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509470
take off that trip you disgusting redditor mongrel

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 06:24:14 No.11511488 Report

Quoted By: >>11511508 >>11511526 >>11516567

>>11508657
[Environmental Scientist specialising in passive dispersal / modelling]

I'm currently working on a research vessel atm. We expect this variant to last until November. It will persist in the population indefinitely, and vaccines are potentially the only way to minimise the seasonal effects expected. Until immune systems are familiar with the new foreign proteins.

If you're interested in this, I recommend reading papers and the conversations between actual epidemiologists. As misinformation from general practitioners is becoming increasingly frustrating.

And just to rub salt into the wounds, we're using MATLAB to model the dispersal and contact pathways.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 06:29:52 No.11511508 Report

Quoted By: >>11512704

>>11511488
Nice dubs
How about treatments? Any word on when a treatment will show up?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 06:39:08 No.11511526 Report

Quoted By:

>>11511488
When do you predict the inflection point is gonna hit for the entire world, assuming current average government trends? How many dead before a vaccine in November?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 06:47:23 No.11511540 Report

Quoted By: >>11512706

>>11509098
>prion virus
>not a thing

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 17:28:14 No.11512596 Report

Quoted By: >>11512953

>>11508672
How will it both die out and keep pace?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 17:31:12 No.11512605 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509470
>Note: I am not a virologist.
that is obvious.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 18:13:53 No.11512694 Report

Quoted By:

>>11510976
>I want to get revenge on the Chinese for this, how feasible are ethnic bioweapons?
google "Chinese Cell Phone Accounts"
We know the Chinese government has been lying about the impact and death toll from the beginning.
They've had 21 MILLION "pay as you go" cell phones go silent and not renewed in the last three months.
It's entirely possible (perhaps even likely) that tens of millions of the people you want to hate on have already died.
The worst part about being Chinese is China.
They're already being "punished".
Go jerk off to a trap thread and stop fuming.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 18:16:27 No.11512700 Report

Quoted By: >>11512737 >>11515050

>>11509484
in the latter case there will be another spike in a few months since there will be no herd immunity

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 18:17:15 No.11512704 Report

Quoted By:

>>11511508
>Any word on when a treatment will show up?
It's a virus.
AIDS treatment has seen considerable progress over the last forty years.
I'd use that as a model to shape your expectations.
tl;dr: If you're young enough not to have kids yet, your grandkids (God/luck permitting) will probably be OK.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 18:18:28 No.11512706 Report

Quoted By:

>>11511540
>>prion virus
>>not a thing
THIS!!!!!
Would 10% of you PLEASE STOP overcooking your steak, thinking it will save you from Mad Cow disease.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 18:30:25 No.11512737 Report

Quoted By: >>11512840 >>11513433

>>11512700
>no herd immunity
Very serious question:
I live with my BFF.
He's got COPD, is on oxygen, and we stated self-isolating a week before everybody else in America.
We both work from home, so no biggie.
My GF and her daughter live together.
The daughter has tested positive, but isn't sick enough to get a hospital bed.
So they're living under the same roof.
I haven't slept there since the 7th, and am likely clean (3 weeks, no symptoms).
Best case for my GF and her daughter is both catch it and live through it, thus becoming immune.
Then what? Can they still spread it? Or is it safe to worship at her altar of Venus again without worrying I might be killing my BFF?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 19:08:17 No.11512840 Report

Quoted By:

>>11512737
> Can they still spread it?
If they are fully recovered then no. From what I read, corona can persist in the body for at least two weeks after symptoms clear. But when it is gone it is gone. And yes they will become immune so the possible second wave in a few months shouldn't affect them. But thats a different story. We don't know how long those recovered will become immune but it is not unreasonable to expect at least 1 to 3 years. Plus the next wave may be a much milder version.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 19:45:40 No.11512953 Report

Quoted By: >>11516241

>>11512596
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hemisphere

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 20:10:37 No.11513038 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509470
>I am not a virologist.
no shit sherlock.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 29 Mar 2020 22:44:18 No.11513433 Report

Quoted By: >>11515230 >>11516372 >>11516427

>>11512737
>girlfriend and her daughter

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 13:36:55 No.11515050 Report

Quoted By:

>>11512700
If you isolate the virus dies out

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 13:40:33 No.11515058 Report

Quoted By: >>11516576

Can a virus become Re-airborne? If you empty a bag full of contaminated items and upon putting the bag away, the airflow from crumpling the bag, would it send the virus back into the air? Or is it only airborne upon leaving an infected person's mouth?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 15:28:58 No.11515230 Report

Quoted By: >>11516276

>>11513433
Have sex

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 21:43:27 No.11516241 Report

Quoted By:

>>11512953
Your answer is that it can happen in one half of the globe and not the other?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 21:55:42 No.11516276 Report

Quoted By:

>>11515230
get raped

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 22:05:03 No.11516311 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509081
>flatten the curve
Redditor that doesn't Laplace–Gauss area distribution and thinks viruses are treatable and that thinks reducing mortality is a good thing. Not gonna make it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 22:25:53 No.11516372 Report

Quoted By:

>>11513433
>not finding a mate with proven fertility
>not having a new model ready to go for the future
Only dipshit losers buy into the virgin oneitis mate model.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 30 Mar 2020 22:44:22 No.11516427 Report

Quoted By:

>>11513433
have sex virgin

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 31 Mar 2020 00:02:09 No.11516567 Report

Quoted By:

>>11511488
>we're using MATLAB

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 31 Mar 2020 00:03:18 No.11516570 Report

Quoted By:

>>11509023
There has been some differences in the U.S. Humidity seems to be more important than temperature.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 31 Mar 2020 00:07:57 No.11516576 Report

Quoted By:

>>11515058
CDC suggested not to stir up dirty clothes as they could agitate the virus particles.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 31 Mar 2020 01:45:33 No.11516791 Report

Quoted By:

Why do statisticians use log graphs to show exponential functions? Is it simply because the data looks nicer filling up the entirety of the chart space instead of most of the data being bunched near the bottom until it shoots upwards?

Because I feel like it's poor form from a science communication standpoint. Unless people know what a log graph is, they will misinterpret a "flattening" graph as one that is actually flattening. When in reality, it's still exponential.

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