>>11501176Actually it would peak at around mid-June with 2,230,034 deaths. (By week 12 you would have 230 million infected but by week 13 you exceed the total population of the US being infected which is impossible)
So a simple back-envelope calculation is
54,000 * 2^12 * 0.01 = 2,230,034
This doesn't take in account ICU collapse from doing nothing, which could easily result in a scenario like Italy, with 10% mortality, on which case you end up with 22 million dead instead of 2.2 million.
>>11501182>Btw, epidemic dynamics is modeled with a set of diff'eqs, not by implementing functions.I know, this is just a "fun" exercise to show you the gravity of the situation from doing nothing. These asspulled criticisms of the paper are bullshit, because 2.2 million is a conservative estimate THAT DOESN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ICU COLLAPSE.
So shit on their flu modeling all you want, anyone with a simple knowledge of math knows that doing nothing would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths at the very least.
