Using this data to determine the geometric progression rate:
from 1 case to 100000 in 67 days. OK k^67 = 100k.
So take logarithms.
67(ln(k)) = ln(100000) so ln(k) = ln(100000)/67 = 0.17. So that means every day there are 17% more infected.
OK does this fit with next 200,000
11 days later
e(l(200000)/78)
1.16939685909018560584
yup still 17% per day
Now 4 days later 300000
e(l(300000)/82)
1.16625672662122983721
still very near 17% extra per day
Modeled.
from 1 case to 100000 in 67 days. OK k^67 = 100k.
So take logarithms.
67(ln(k)) = ln(100000) so ln(k) = ln(100000)/67 = 0.17. So that means every day there are 17% more infected.
OK does this fit with next 200,000
11 days later
e(l(200000)/78)
1.16939685909018560584
yup still 17% per day
Now 4 days later 300000
e(l(300000)/82)
1.16625672662122983721
still very near 17% extra per day
Modeled.
