>>11496517>>11496530>Those scenarios are if no lock down of EVERYONE would have happened, and since the paper is dated 16/3 it was an actual possibilityAre you fucking serious right now? Can you just look at the study for 5 minutes? It includes lockdown scenarios, and they don't "change" anything. All general isolation does is move the curve back, it doesn't stop the curve from happening.
Also the fucking point of social isolation and "flattening the curve" is NOT to lower the total number of cases, contrary to what most people believe. The flattened curve has the same exact area under it, which is why it's wider. The point is to give the hospitals more breathing room because then more attention can be given to each coronavirus patient which will help keep the covid death rate down.
>>11496525>If the virus stayed in China that would have been the peakYes, exactly! The disease isn't contained. You can't prevent it. That's the point; that is, that smug fucks like you would have said the same thing a month ago, when in reality you don't understand that (unless there's a vaccine within the next year, which realistically isn't going to happen) basically everybody is going to get covid regardless.
>if no mass reinfection happens we in Italy are near the peakunless the disease literally fucking disappears there will 100% be a "reinfection". an uninhibited r0 of 2.5, and a 2 week asymptomatic period. Do you understand what that means?
