- It's not that deadly
- We are sampling the tip of the iceberg
- widescale Antibody testing must be done to establish true CFR
- Germany with 19,848 confirmed and 68 deaths
- Italy with 47,000 confirmed and 4,032 deaths
Shows a large discrepancy that obviously results from differences in confirmed testing.
Why is it so scary then? It hacked human psychology.
R0 is extremely high, at the high end of estimates. Asymptomatic cases are extremely high, probably 5x-20x symptomatic cases
This leads to extreme spread in any society and an extremely compressed peak as compared to normal flu. This scares humanity because it "front loads" all the deaths.
once a year if all the car crash deaths happened in the span of a week it would freak out humanity. This does the same with a flu-like virus. Infecting at a spread rate that is incredible with a huge number of stealth cases and then the 1000 dead seems incredibly scary.
not to mention seasonality.
In any case humans are over-reacting to corona-virus whereas a slow boil more deadly virus the normal flu gets ignored.
- We are sampling the tip of the iceberg
- widescale Antibody testing must be done to establish true CFR
- Germany with 19,848 confirmed and 68 deaths
- Italy with 47,000 confirmed and 4,032 deaths
Shows a large discrepancy that obviously results from differences in confirmed testing.
Why is it so scary then? It hacked human psychology.
R0 is extremely high, at the high end of estimates. Asymptomatic cases are extremely high, probably 5x-20x symptomatic cases
This leads to extreme spread in any society and an extremely compressed peak as compared to normal flu. This scares humanity because it "front loads" all the deaths.
once a year if all the car crash deaths happened in the span of a week it would freak out humanity. This does the same with a flu-like virus. Infecting at a spread rate that is incredible with a huge number of stealth cases and then the 1000 dead seems incredibly scary.
not to mention seasonality.
In any case humans are over-reacting to corona-virus whereas a slow boil more deadly virus the normal flu gets ignored.
