>>11467288It is more complicated than that.
Yes, they haven't beaten the virus.
No, the have the outbreak under controll for now (if offical sources are to be belived)
The speed at wich the virus spreads depends on several factor:
>basic spreading speed per day/week>enviromental/counter measure factor >immunity from people infected previously>number of people infected in totalNow it's an exponential function, basicly it's:
Infected people^(basic spreading speed*enviroment or countermeasure factor*portion of people vulnerable to the virus)
For corona it looks something like that:
X^(3*1*1) for an unprepared population.
In china the lockdown meant that the enviroment or countermeasure factor went near zero, resulting in people recovering faster than they got infected at some point.
Now china went crazy about that and we can't expect any western goverment to pull that off.
But it basicly saved their ass.
That equation looks something like
X^(3*0,1*1)
Now a lot of people have recovered and are unlikely to catch that virus again, changing the factor from 1 to something lower.
That allows them to reduce counter measures to a certain degree without having the virus spread faster than people recover as the product of the factors listed above stays below 1, wich looks about like that:
X^(3*0,4*0,8)
Now western goverments are basicly incapable of china-tier lockdowns to get the enviromental factor down to a level where the outbreak is under controll.
Every day more people get infected than on the day before.
That means it will spread a lot faster and longer here with more serious consequences since we can't treat the infected peop at that kind of scale.
(sorry for terrible grammar and not using latex, my native language isn't english and I'm phoneposting)
